A re-evaluation of the impact of temperature and climate change on foodborne illness.

Abstract:

:The effects of temperature on reported cases of a number of foodborne illnesses in England and Wales were investigated. We also explored whether the impact of temperature had changed over time. Food poisoning, campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, Salmonella Typhimurium infections and Salmonella Enteritidis infections were positively associated (P<0.01) with temperature in the current and previous week. Only food poisoning, salmonellosis and S. Typhimurium infections were associated with temperature 2-5 weeks previously (P<0.01). There were significant reductions also in the impact of temperature on foodborne illnesses over time. This applies to temperature in the current and previous week for all illness types (P<0.01) except S. Enteritidis infection (P=0.079). Temperature 2-5 weeks previously diminished in importance for food poisoning and S. Typhimurium infection (P<0.001). The results are consistent with reduced pathogen concentrations in food and improved food hygiene over time. These adaptations to temperature imply that current estimates of how climate change may alter foodborne illness burden are overly pessimistic.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Lake IR,Gillespie IA,Bentham G,Nichols GL,Lane C,Adak GK,Threlfall EJ

doi

10.1017/S0950268809002477

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2009-11-01 00:00:00

pages

1538-47

issue

11

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268809002477

journal_volume

137

pub_type

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