The potential for Simpson's paradox in drug utilization studies.

Abstract:

PURPOSE:Simpson's paradox is a type of severe confounding wherein a confounding variable changes the direction of an association. METHODS:This article demonstrates Simpson's paradox with three cohorts of naproxen users (new users, chronic users, and combined users) who were compared on the age/sex distribution of further naproxen use. Hypothetical new and chronic user populations were constructed with the same proportions for further naproxen use as their original counterparts. RESULTS:The hypothetical combined population showed an age/sex distribution opposite to that of the original combined population. CONCLUSIONS:This example of Simpson's paradox is a significant finding as many drug utilization studies do not distinguish between component populations.

journal_name

Ann Epidemiol

journal_title

Annals of epidemiology

authors

Neutel CI

doi

10.1016/s1047-2797(97)00084-7

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1997-10-01 00:00:00

pages

517-21

issue

7

eissn

1047-2797

issn

1873-2585

pii

S1047-2797(97)00084-7

journal_volume

7

pub_type

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