Efficacy outcomes in phase 2 and phase 3 randomized controlled trials in rheumatology.

Abstract:

:Phase 3 trials are the mainstay of drug development across medicine but have often not met expectations set by preceding phase 2 studies. A systematic meta-analysis evaluated all randomized controlled, double-blind trials investigating targeted disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs in rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis. Primary outcomes of American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 responses were compared by mixed-model logistic regression, including exploration of potential determinants of efficacy overestimation. In rheumatoid arthritis, phase 2 trial outcomes systematically overestimated subsequent phase 3 results (odds ratio comparing ACR20 in phase 2 versus phase 3: 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.25-1.57, P < 0.001). Data for psoriatic arthritis trials were similar, but not statistically significant (odds ratio comparing ACR20 in phase 2 versus phase 3: 1.35, 95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.94, P = 0.09). Differences in inclusion criteria largely explained the observed differences in efficacy findings. Our findings have implications for all stakeholders in new therapeutic development and testing, as well as potential ethical implications.

journal_name

Nat Med

journal_title

Nature medicine

authors

Kerschbaumer A,Smolen JS,Herkner H,Stefanova T,Chwala E,Aletaha D

doi

10.1038/s41591-020-0833-4

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-06-01 00:00:00

pages

974-980

issue

6

eissn

1078-8956

issn

1546-170X

pii

10.1038/s41591-020-0833-4

journal_volume

26

pub_type

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