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Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions.

Abstract：

:The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. Utilizing magnetic field evolution models for the Sun's surface and interior we perform the first century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Our ensemble forecast indicates cycle 25 would be similar or slightly stronger than the current cycle and peak around 2024. Sunspot cycle 25 may thus reverse the substantial weakening trend in solar activity which has led to speculation of an imminent Maunder-like grand minimum and cooling global climate. Our simulations demonstrate fluctuation in the tilt angle distribution of sunspots is the dominant mechanism responsible for solar cycle variability.

journal_name

Nat Commun

journal_title

Nature communications

authors

Bhowmik P,Nandy D

doi

10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2018-12-06 00:00:00

pages

5209

issue

1

issn

2041-1723

pii

10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0

journal_volume

9

pub_type

杂志文章

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