Derivation of a prediction model for a diagnosis of depression in young adults: a matched case-control study using electronic primary care records.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:Approximately 80 000 children and young people in the UK suffer from depression, but many are untreated because of poor identification of early warning signs and risk factors. AIMS:This study aimed to derive and to investigate discrimination characteristics of a prediction model for a first recorded diagnosis of depression in young people aged 15-24 years. METHOD:This study used a matched case-control method using electronic primary care records. Stepwise conditional logistic regression modelling investigated 42 potential predictors including symptoms, co-morbidities, social factors and drug and alcohol misuse. RESULTS:Of the socio-economic and symptomatic predictors identified, the strongest associations were with depression symptoms and other psychological conditions. School problems and social services involvement were prominent predictors in men aged 15-18 years, work stress in women aged 19-24 years. CONCLUSION:Our model is a first step in the development of a predictive model identifying early warning signs of depression in young people in primary care.

authors

Nichols L,Ryan R,Connor C,Birchwood M,Marshall T

doi

10.1111/eip.12332

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2018-06-01 00:00:00

pages

444-455

issue

3

eissn

1751-7885

issn

1751-7893

journal_volume

12

pub_type

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