Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Complicated HIV transmission dynamics make it unclear how to design and interpret results from community-randomized controlled trials (CRCT) of interventions to prevent infection. METHODS:Mathematical modelling was used to investigate the effectiveness of interventions to prevent HIV transmission aimed at high-risk groups and factors related to the chance of recording a statistically significant result. RESULTS:Behaviour change by high-risk groups can substantially reduce HIV incidence in the whole population, although its effect is sensitive to the structure of the sexual network and the phase of the epidemic. There is a delay between the behaviour change happening and its full effect being realized in the low-risk group and this can pull the measured incidence rate ratio towards one and reduce the chance of recording a statistically significant result in a CRCT. Our simulations suggest that only with unrealistically favourable study conditions would a statistically significant result be likely with 5 years follow-up or less. Small differences in the epidemiological parameters between communities can lead to misleading incidence rate ratios. Behaviour change independent of the intervention can increase the epidemiological impact of the intervention and the chance of recording a statistically significant result. CONCLUSIONS:HIV prevention interventions, especially those targeted at high-risk groups may take longer to work at the population level and need more follow-up time in a CRCT to generate statistically significant results. Mathematical modelling can be used in the design and analysis of CRCTs to understand how the impact of the intervention could develop and the implications this has for statistical power.
journal_name
Int J Epidemioljournal_title
International journal of epidemiologyauthors
Hallett TB,Garnett GP,Mupamberiyi Z,Gregson Sdoi
10.1093/ije/dym232subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2008-02-01 00:00:00pages
77-87issue
1eissn
0300-5771issn
1464-3685pii
dym232journal_volume
37pub_type
杂志文章abstract:BACKGROUND:Some, but not all, observational studies have suggested that taller stature is associated with a significant increased risk of glioma. In a pooled analysis of observational studies, we investigated the strength and consistency of this association, overall and for major sub-types, and investigated effect modi...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1093/ije/dys114
更新日期:2012-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:A growing body of evidence supports the role of type 2 diabetes as an individual-level risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), though evidence from developing countries with the highest TB burdens is lacking. In developing countries, TB is most common among the poor, in whom diabetes may be less common. We assess...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/dyq238
更新日期:2011-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:An ideological climate has persisted in Korea that has discouraged public discussion of social inequalities. Thus studies on inequalities in mortality remain undeveloped. This study is to examine age- and cause-specific socioeconomic mortality differentials for both men and women representative of the Korean...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/dyg244
更新日期:2004-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::A prediction of the end-stage renal disease (ESRD) population in Japan from 1980 to 2000 was made using a system dynamics model based on previously published estimates. It is estimated that the ESRD population will be 145,750 (1111 per million population (pmp)) by the year 2000, if renal transplantation gradually incr...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/20.4.1032
更新日期:1991-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:While prior studies of thyroid cancer incidence within Belarus have increased since the 1986 Chernobyl reactor accident, the magnitude of increase is not well quantified. METHODS:Using Belarussian national cancer registry data, trends in average annual age-adjusted thyroid cancer incidence rates were examin...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/dyh201
更新日期:2004-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Management of medical services necessitates decisions regarding the possibly ineffective treatment programmes, hospitals and (even) individual practitioners. Although rigorous evaluations of effectiveness can only be achieved by randomized trials there has been, in recent years, much increase in audit (or peer review)...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/12.4.482
更新日期:1983-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Each of three consecutive cold seasons (November-March) in the town of Tiberias, Israel, was dominated by one particular rotavirus serotype causing acute diarrhoea in the community: the 1987/88 season by serotype-2; 1988/89 by serotype-1 and 1989/90 by serotype-4. Each season was also characterized by a particular pat...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/21.2.399
更新日期:1992-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Melioidosis, or infection with Pseudomonas pseudomallei is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in South East Asia and Northern Australia. The epidemiology of melioidosis in Ubon Ratchatani, Northeast Thailand was studied over a 5-year period from 1987 to 1991. METHODS:Rates and, when possible, the...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/23.5.1082
更新日期:1994-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::The European Atherosclerosis Research Study--EARS--is a multicentre collaborative project sponsored by the European Community. Its main objective is to study, in young people, the biological expression of a paternal history of premature acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and the relative share of heredity and environme...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1093/ije/23.3.465
更新日期:1994-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Blood pressure levels were measured in 626 children (138 Japanese, 477 Bolivian and 11 of mixed blood) in a Japanese agricultural settlement in Bolivia. Systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure was higher in Japanese children than in Bolivian children at each measured age by 4.09 mmHg (P = 0.0001) and 2.25 mm...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/18.1.100
更新日期:1989-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::The Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS) assessed population trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, morbidity and risk factor levels in the Twin Cities metropolitan area to explain the decline in CHD deaths. Age-adjusted CHD mortality rates declined in Twin Cities residents aged 30 to 74 from 1968 to 1986 by 52% in...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
更新日期:1989-01-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Aetiological profiles of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) may differ depending upon whether the disease is inheritance-related or sporadic. Because familial risk (a probable surrogate of inheritance-relatedness) of NHL is influenced by haematolymphoproliferative malignancies (HLPM), we evaluated whether non-fami...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/30.4.818
更新日期:2001-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:Background:Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) has largely disappeared from high-income countries. However, in New Zealand (NZ) rates remain high in indigenous (Māori) and Pacific populations. In 2011, NZ launched an intensive and unparalleled primary Rheumatic Fever Prevention Programme (RFPP). We evaluated the impact of the ...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/dyy150
更新日期:2018-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Previous studies have shown socioeconomic inequalities in the metabolic syndrome and coronary heart disease (CHD), but it is not known whether educational disparities in the metabolic syndrome explain educational inequalities in CHD. We investigated this question in a prospective study of middle-aged men and...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/dyi007
更新日期:2005-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The aim of this research was to determine the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) carrier prevalence among cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and the population attributable risk of HBsAg carriage for HCC, by ethnicity in New Zealand. METHODS:The hospital notes of HCC cases registered with the New Zea...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/28.2.204
更新日期:1999-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Present understanding of increased risk of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-related infectious mononucleosis among children of low birth order or small sibships is mainly based on old and indirect evidence. Societal changes and methodological limitations of previous studies call for new data. METHODS:We used data f...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/dyu118
更新日期:2014-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:A recent monograph by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has identified indoor air pollution from coal usage as a known human carcinogen, while that from biomass as a probable human carcinogen. Although as much as 74% of the Indian population relies on solid fuels for cooking, very little...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1093/ije/dym261
更新日期:2008-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Child mortality rates have been declining in most developing countries. We studied child and maternal mortality risk factors for child mortality in Beira city in July 1993, after a decade of conflict in Mozambique. METHODS:A community-based cluster sample survey of 4609 women of childbearing age was conduct...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/25.2.349
更新日期:1996-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The long-term effects of infant vitamin D supplementation and status are unclear since there have been few controlled intervention trials and these have been small and contradictory. The Delhi Infant Vitamin D Supplementation (DIVIDS) trial found that supplementation of low-birthweight term infants with one ...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1093/ije/dyv116
更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Child feeding recommendations include breastfeeding beyond 12 months, however, some researchers have reported increased rates of malnutrition in breastfed toddlers. A negative association between growth and breast-feeding may reflect reverse causality; that is, the outcome (growth) is a determinant of the pr...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/26.2.349
更新日期:1997-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The aims of this study were to examine the prevalence of drug use, and how morbidity, use of health services, self-evaluated health, demographic pattern and lifestyle characteristics influence drug use in a general population. METHODS:The study was carried out in the municipality of Tromsø, Norway. A sample...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/23.6.1262
更新日期:1994-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Sexual behaviour data are crucial for understanding the spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STD). Over a period (1987-1992) in which the HIV epidemic increased public awareness of safe sexual practices, we describe predictors of condom use, changes in condom use over time, and the estimated effects of t...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/24.4.813
更新日期:1995-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Although disorders of the prostate are among the most prevalent problems in elderly males, little is known about their epidemiological characteristics. The 1986 Barcelona Health Interview Survey (BHIS), a cross-sectional study of a random sample of the noninstitutionalized population of the city, was used to estimate ...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/21.5.959
更新日期:1992-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To examine age- and sex-specific mortality rates and trends in water traffic accidents (WTA), and their association with alcohol, in Finland. MATERIALS AND METHODS:National mortality and population data from Finland, 1969-1995, are used to analyse rates and trends. The mortality rates are calculated on the b...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/27.6.1038
更新日期:1998-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Infant mortality rates vary substantially among municipalities in the State of Ceará, from 14 to 193 per 1000 live births. Identification of the determinants of these differences can be of particular importance to infant health policy and programmes in Brazil where local governments play a pivotal role in pr...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/28.2.267
更新日期:1999-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Carcinogenesis, at least for some types of cancer, can be interpreted as the consequence of selection of mutated cells similar to what, in the theory of evolution, occurs at the population level. Instead of considering a population of organisms, we can refer to a population of cells belonging to multicellular organism...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1093/ije/dyl185
更新日期:2006-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:In a pilot study for the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) a modification of the Baecke questionnaire on physical activity was tested for repeatability and relative validity in a population of 134 men and women aged 20-70 years. METHODS:For the assessment of repeatability P...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/24.2.381
更新日期:1995-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Smoking during pregnancy has been shown to increase the risks of several adverse birth outcomes. Associations with overweight and/or obesity in the offspring have also been suggested. We aim to investigate whether familial factors confound the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and overwei...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/dyq064
更新日期:2010-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Preliminary research suggests an association between depression and subsequent increased risk of infections, yet little is known on this topic. This study investigated the association between depression and risk of various types of infections, including temporal and dose-response relationships. METHODS:A pr...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/dyv333
更新日期:2016-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::A case-control study of risk factors for child diarrhoeal disease was undertaken in a rural area of Nicaragua. Some 1229 children under the age of five were matched with an equal number of children of the same age presenting with other illnesses unrelated to water and sanitation. The main types of water supply were sa...
journal_title:International journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/ije/20.2.527
更新日期:1991-06-01 00:00:00