Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles.

Abstract:

:The assessment of uncertainties in global warming projections is often based on expert judgement, because a number of key variables in climate change are poorly quantified. In particular, the sensitivity of climate to changing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing effects by aerosols are not well constrained, leading to large uncertainties in global warming simulations. Here we present a Monte Carlo approach to produce probabilistic climate projections, using a climate model of reduced complexity. The uncertainties in the input parameters and in the model itself are taken into account, and past observations of oceanic and atmospheric warming are used to constrain the range of realistic model responses. We obtain a probability density function for the present-day total radiative forcing, giving 1.4 to 2.4 W m-2 for the 5-95 per cent confidence range, narrowing the global-mean indirect aerosol effect to the range of 0 to -1.2 W m-2. Ensemble simulations for two illustrative emission scenarios suggest a 40 per cent probability that global-mean surface temperature increase will exceed the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but only a 5 per cent probability that warming will fall below that range.

journal_name

Nature

journal_title

Nature

authors

Knutti R,Stocker TF,Joos F,Plattner GK

doi

10.1038/416719a

keywords:

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2002-04-18 00:00:00

pages

719-23

issue

6882

eissn

0028-0836

issn

1476-4687

pii

416719a

journal_volume

416

pub_type

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