Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer morbidity among Shanghai and Hong Kong women, which contributes to 20-25% of new female cancer incidents. This study aimed to describe the temporal trend of breast cancer and interpret the potential effects on the observed secular trends. METHODS:Cancer incident data were obtained from the cancer registries. Age-standardized incidence rate was computed by the direct method using the World population of 2000. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) in incidence rate was estimated by the Joinpoint regression. Age, period and cohort effects were assessed by using a log-linear model with Poisson regression. RESULTS:During 1976-2009, an increasing trend of breast cancer incidence was observed, with an AAPC of 1.73 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.54-1.92)] for women in Hong Kong and 2.83 (95% CI, 2.26-3.40) in Shanghai. Greater upward trends were revealed in Shanghai women aged 50 years old or above (AAPC = 3.09; 95% CI, 1.48-4.73). Using age at 50 years old as cut-point, strong birth cohort effects were shown in both pre- and post-menopausal women, though a more remarkable effect was suggested in Shanghai post-menopausal women. No evidence for a period effect was indicated. CONCLUSIONS:Incidence rate of breast cancer has been more speedy in Shanghai post-menopausal women than that of the Hong Kong women over the past 30 years. Decreased birth rate and increasing environmental exposures (e.g., light-at-night) over successive generations may have constituted major impacts on the birth cohort effects, especially for the post-menopausal breast cancer; further analytic studies are warranted.
journal_name
BMC Cancerjournal_title
BMC cancerauthors
Wang F,Tse LA,Chan WC,Kwok CC,Leung SL,Wu C,Mang OW,Ngan RK,Li M,Yu WC,Tsang KH,Law SH,Miao X,Wu C,Zheng Y,Wu F,Yang XR,Yu ITdoi
10.1186/s12885-017-3359-5subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-05-23 00:00:00pages
362issue
1issn
1471-2407pii
10.1186/s12885-017-3359-5journal_volume
17pub_type
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