Development of a nomogram for prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery.

Abstract:

OBJECTIVE:To develop a model based on factors available at the first prenatal visit that predicts chance of successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) for individual patients who undergo a trial of labor. METHODS:All women with one prior low transverse cesarean who underwent a trial of labor at term with a vertex singleton gestation were identified from a concurrently collected database of deliveries at 19 academic centers during a 4-year period. Using factors identifiable at the first prenatal visit, we analyzed different classification techniques in an effort to develop a meaningful prediction model for VBAC success. After development and cross-validation, this model was represented by a graphic nomogram. RESULTS:Seven-thousand six hundred sixty women were available for analysis. The prediction model is based on a multivariable logistic regression, including the variables of maternal age, body mass index, ethnicity, prior vaginal delivery, the occurrence of a VBAC, and a potentially recurrent indication for the cesarean delivery. After analyzing the model with cross-validation techniques, it was found to be both accurate and discriminating. CONCLUSION:A predictive nomogram, which incorporates six variables easily ascertainable at the first prenatal visit, has been developed that allows the determination of a patient-specific chance for successful VBAC for those women who undertake trial of labor. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:II.

journal_name

Obstet Gynecol

authors

Grobman WA,Lai Y,Landon MB,Spong CY,Leveno KJ,Rouse DJ,Varner MW,Moawad AH,Caritis SN,Harper M,Wapner RJ,Sorokin Y,Miodovnik M,Carpenter M,O'Sullivan MJ,Sibai BM,Langer O,Thorp JM,Ramin SM,Mercer BM,National Insti

doi

10.1097/01.AOG.0000259312.36053.02

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2007-04-01 00:00:00

pages

806-12

issue

4

eissn

0029-7844

issn

1873-233X

pii

109/4/806

journal_volume

109

pub_type

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