Climatic changes can drive the loss of genetic diversity in a Neotropical savanna tree species.

Abstract:

:The high rates of future climatic changes, compared with the rates reported for past changes, may hamper species adaptation to new climates or the tracking of suitable conditions, resulting in significant loss of genetic diversity. Trees are dominant species in many biomes and because they are long-lived, they may not be able to cope with ongoing climatic changes. Here, we coupled ecological niche modelling (ENM) and genetic simulations to forecast the effects of climatic changes on the genetic diversity and the structure of genetic clusters. Genetic simulations were conditioned to climatic variables and restricted to plant dispersal and establishment. We used a Neotropical savanna tree as species model that shows a preference for hot and drier climates, but with low temperature seasonality. The ENM predicts a decreasing range size along the more severe future climatic scenario. Additionally, genetic diversity and allelic richness also decrease with range retraction and climatic genetic clusters are lost for both future scenarios, which will lead genetic variability to homogenize throughout the landscape. Besides, climatic genetic clusters will spatially reconfigure on the landscape following displacements of climatic conditions. Our findings indicate that climate change effects will challenge population adaptation to new environmental conditions because of the displacement of genetic ancestry clusters from their optimal conditions.

journal_name

Glob Chang Biol

journal_title

Global change biology

authors

Lima JS,Ballesteros-Mejia L,Lima-Ribeiro MS,Collevatti RG

doi

10.1111/gcb.13685

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-11-01 00:00:00

pages

4639-4650

issue

11

eissn

1354-1013

issn

1365-2486

journal_volume

23

pub_type

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