Abstract:
:Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends.
journal_name
Glob Chang Bioljournal_title
Global change biologyauthors
Green DMdoi
10.1111/gcb.13390subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-02-01 00:00:00pages
646-656issue
2eissn
1354-1013issn
1365-2486journal_volume
23pub_type
杂志文章abstract::Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12598
更新日期:2014-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Soil carbon transformation and sequestration have received significant interest in recent years due to a growing need for quantitating its role in mitigating climate change. Even though our understanding of the nature of soil organic matter has recently been substantially revised, fundamental uncertainty remains about...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14781
更新日期:2019-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) often results in degradation of natural wetlands and affects the dynamics of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, the magnitude of changes in GHG emissions from wetlands undergoing various LULCC types remains unclear. We conducted a global meta-analysis with a database of 209 sites to e...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1111/gcb.14933
更新日期:2020-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Microbial-derived nitrogen (N) is now recognized as an important source of soil organic N. However, the mechanisms that govern the production of microbial necromass N, its turnover, and stabilization in soil remain poorly understood. To assess the effects of elevated temperature on bacterial and fungal necromass N pro...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15206
更新日期:2020-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::In the forest-tundra ecotone of the North Fennoscandian inland, summer and winter temperatures have increased by two to three centigrades since 1965, which is expected to result in major vegetation changes. To document the expected expansion of woodlands and scrublands and its impact on the arctic vegetation, we repea...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13710
更新日期:2017-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Growth-climate relationships were investigated in Greek firs from Ainos Mountain on the island of Cephalonia in western Greece, using dendrochronology. The goal was to test whether tree growth is sensitive to moisture stress, whether such sensitivity has been stable through time, and whether changes in growth-moisture...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12053
更新日期:2013-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Wheat production will be impacted by increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2 [CO2 ], which is expected to rise from about 400 μmol mol(-1) in 2015 to 550 μmol mol(-1) by 2050. Changes to plant physiology and crop responses from elevated [CO2 ] (e[CO2 ]) are well documented for some environments, but field-level re...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13263
更新日期:2016-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::In Boulanger et al. (2018), we investigated the effects of ungulates on forest plant diversity. By suggesting a revisit of our conclusions regarding ecosystem dynamics since the late Pleistocene, Fløjgaard et al. (2018) came to the conclusion that moderate grazing in forest should be a conservation target. Since major...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 评论,信件
doi:10.1111/gcb.14122
更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Air temperatures in the arid western United States are predicted to increase over the next century. These increases will likely impact the distribution of plant species, particularly dioecious species that show a spatial segregation of the sexes across broad resource gradients. On the basis of spatial segregation patt...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12230
更新日期:2013-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empi...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13835
更新日期:2018-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Increases in the emissions and associated atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) have the potential to cause significant changes to the structure and function of N-limited ecosystems. Here, we present the results of a long-term (13 year) experiment assessing the impacts of N addition (30 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) ) on a UK lo...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02732.x
更新日期:2012-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extreme...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14329
更新日期:2018-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong the...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13272
更新日期:2016-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Nitrogen (N) fixation in moss-associated cyanobacteria is one of the main sources of available N for N-limited ecosystems such as subarctic tundra. Yet, N2 fixation in mosses is strongly influenced by soil moisture and temperature. Thus, temporal scaling up of low-frequency in situ measurements to several weeks, month...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13418
更新日期:2017-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Climate warming will affect terrestrial ecosystems in many ways, and warming-induced changes in terrestrial carbon (C) cycling could accelerate or slow future warming. So far, warming experiments have shown a wide range of C flux responses, across and within biome types. However, past meta-analyses of C flux responses...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1111/gcb.14603
更新日期:2019-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::Stem CO2 efflux (ES) plays an important role in the carbon balance of forest ecosystems. However, its primary controls at the global scale are poorly understood and observation-based global estimates are lacking. We synthesized data from 121 published studies across global forest ecosystems and examined the relationsh...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13188
更新日期:2016-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Global climate change poses a serious threat to the future health of coral reef ecosystems. This calls for management strategies that are focused on maximizing the evolutionary potential of coral reefs. Fundamental to this is an accurate understanding of the spatial genetic structure in dominant reef-building coral sp...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13639
更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::The aim of this study was to predict the combined effects of enhanced nitrogen (N) deposition and warming on phytoplankton development in high latitude and mountain lakes. Consequently, we assessed, in a series of enclosure experiments, how lake water nutrient stoichiometry and phytoplankton nutrient limitation varied...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12234
更新日期:2013-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::In the context of ongoing climatic warming, certain landscapes could be near a tipping point where relatively small changes to their fire regimes or their postfire forest recovery dynamics could bring about extensive forest loss, with associated effects on biodiversity and carbon-cycle feedbacks to climate change. Suc...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13704
更新日期:2017-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::We apply and compare three widely applicable methods for estimating ecosystem transpiration (T) from eddy covariance (EC) data across 251 FLUXNET sites globally. All three methods are based on the coupled water and carbon relationship, but they differ in assumptions and parameterizations. Intercomparison of the three ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15314
更新日期:2020-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demo...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14538
更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Drought-related tree mortality is now a widespread phenomenon predicted to increase in magnitude with climate change. However, the patterns of which species and trees are most vulnerable to drought, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive, in part due to the lack of relevant data and difficulty of predicti...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15037
更新日期:2020-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::Biological invasions are one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity. Marine artificial structures are proliferating worldwide and provide a haven for marine invasive species. Such structures disrupt local hydrodynamics, which can lead to the formation of oxygen-depleted microsites. The extent to which native fa...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13668
更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::We studied forest monitoring data collected at permanent plots in Italy over the period 2000-2009 to identify the possible impact of nitrogen (N) deposition on soil chemistry, tree nutrition and growth. Average N throughfall (N-NO3 +N-NH4 ) ranged between 4 and 29 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) , with Critical Loads (CLs) for nutr...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12552
更新日期:2014-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::A global warming-induced transition from glacial to periglacial processes has been identified in mountainous regions around the world. Degrading permafrost in pristine periglacial environments can produce acid rock drainage (ARD) and cause severe ecological damage in areas underlain by sulfide-bearing bedrock. Limnolo...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13985
更新日期:2018-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::When environments change rapidly, adaptive phenotypic plasticity can ameliorate negative effects of environmental change on survival and reproduction. Recent evidence suggests, however, that plastic responses to human-induced environmental change are often maladaptive or insufficient to overcome novel selection pressu...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14610
更新日期:2019-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Describing the spatial and temporal dynamics of communities is essential for understanding the impacts of global environmental change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Trait-based approaches can provide better insight than species-based (i.e. taxonomic) approaches into community assembly and ecosystem functio...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14785
更新日期:2019-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12651
更新日期:2014-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::To avoid submergence during sea-level rise, coastal wetlands build soil surfaces vertically through accumulation of inorganic sediment and organic matter. At climatic boundaries where mangroves are expanding and replacing salt marsh, wetland capacity to respond to sea-level rise may change. To compare how well mangrov...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13945
更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factor...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15123
更新日期:2020-04-20 00:00:00