Abstract:
:For epidemic models, it is shown that fatal infectious diseases cannot drive the host population into extinction if the incidence function is upper density-dependent. This finding holds even if a latency period is included and the time from infection to disease-induced death has an arbitrary length distribution. However, if the incidence function is also lower density-dependent, very infectious diseases can lead to a drastic decline of the host population. Further, the final population size after an epidemic outbreak can possibly be substantially affected by the infection-age distribution of the initial infectives if the life expectations of infected individuals are an unbounded function of infection age (time since infection). This is the case for lognormal distributions, which fit data from infection experiments involving tiger salamander larvae and ranavirus better than gamma distributions and Weibull distributions.
journal_name
Bull Math Bioljournal_title
Bulletin of mathematical biologyauthors
Farrell AP,Collins JP,Greer AL,Thieme HRdoi
10.1007/s11538-018-0446-ysubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-07-01 00:00:00pages
1937-1961issue
7eissn
0092-8240issn
1522-9602pii
10.1007/s11538-018-0446-yjournal_volume
80pub_type
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