Times from Infection to Disease-Induced Death and their Influence on Final Population Sizes After Epidemic Outbreaks.

Abstract:

:For epidemic models, it is shown that fatal infectious diseases cannot drive the host population into extinction if the incidence function is upper density-dependent. This finding holds even if a latency period is included and the time from infection to disease-induced death has an arbitrary length distribution. However, if the incidence function is also lower density-dependent, very infectious diseases can lead to a drastic decline of the host population. Further, the final population size after an epidemic outbreak can possibly be substantially affected by the infection-age distribution of the initial infectives if the life expectations of infected individuals are an unbounded function of infection age (time since infection). This is the case for lognormal distributions, which fit data from infection experiments involving tiger salamander larvae and ranavirus better than gamma distributions and Weibull distributions.

journal_name

Bull Math Biol

authors

Farrell AP,Collins JP,Greer AL,Thieme HR

doi

10.1007/s11538-018-0446-y

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2018-07-01 00:00:00

pages

1937-1961

issue

7

eissn

0092-8240

issn

1522-9602

pii

10.1007/s11538-018-0446-y

journal_volume

80

pub_type

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