Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Selecting patients with 'sufficient life expectancy' for Phase I oncology trials remains challenging. The Royal Marsden Hospital Score (RMS) previously identified high-risk patients as those with ≥ 2 of the following: albumin <35 g l(-1); LDH > upper limit of normal; >2 metastatic sites. This study developed an alternative prognostic model, and compared its performance with that of the RMS. METHODS:The primary end point was the 90-day mortality rate. The new model was developed from the same database as RMS, but it used Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID). The ROC characteristics of both methods were then validated in an independent database of 324 patients enrolled in European Organization on Research and Treatment of Cancer Phase I trials of cytotoxic agents between 2000 and 2009. RESULTS:The CHAID method identified high-risk patients as those with albumin <33 g l(-1) or ≥ 33 g l(-1), but platelet counts ≥ 400.000 mm(-3). In the validation data set, the rates of correctly classified patients were 0.79 vs 0.67 for the CHAID model and RMS, respectively. The negative predictive values (NPV) were similar for the CHAID model and RMS. CONCLUSION:The CHAID model and RMS provided a similarly high level of NPV, but the CHAID model gave a better accuracy in the validation set. Both CHAID model and RMS may improve the screening process in phase I trials.
journal_name
Br J Cancerjournal_title
British journal of cancerauthors
Ploquin A,Olmos D,Lacombe D,A'Hern R,Duhamel A,Twelves C,Marsoni S,Morales-Barrera R,Soria JC,Verweij J,Voest EE,Schöffski P,Schellens JH,Kramar A,Kristeleit RS,Arkenau HT,Kaye SB,Penel Ndoi
10.1038/bjc.2012.371subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2012-09-25 00:00:00pages
1025-30issue
7eissn
0007-0920issn
1532-1827pii
bjc2012371journal_volume
107pub_type
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journal_title:British journal of cancer
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doi:10.1038/bjc.1998.278
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pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
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