Abstract:
:As European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7 °C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40 °C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40 °C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35 °C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 °C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40 °C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100.
journal_name
Nat Communjournal_title
Nature communicationsauthors
Christidis N,McCarthy M,Stott PAdoi
10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-06-30 00:00:00pages
3093issue
1issn
2041-1723pii
10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0journal_volume
11pub_type
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