The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the United Kingdom.

Abstract:

:As European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7 °C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40 °C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40 °C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35 °C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 °C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40 °C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100.

journal_name

Nat Commun

journal_title

Nature communications

authors

Christidis N,McCarthy M,Stott PA

doi

10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-06-30 00:00:00

pages

3093

issue

1

issn

2041-1723

pii

10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0

journal_volume

11

pub_type

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