Abstract:
BACKGROUND:In some populations, complete shifts in the genotype of the strain of measles circulating in the population have been observed, with given genotypes being replaced by new genotypes. Studies have postulated that such shifts may be attributable to differences between the fitness of the new and the old genotypes. METHODS:We developed a stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of measles, simulating the effects of different levels of migration, vaccination coverage and importation of new genotypes on patterns in the persistence and replacement of indigenous genotypes. RESULTS:The analyses illustrate that complete replacement in the genotype of the strain circulating in populations may occur because of chance. This occurred in >50% of model simulations, for levels of vaccination coverage and numbers of imported cases per year which are compatible with those observed in several Western European populations (>80% and >3 per million per year respectively) and for the given assumptions in the model. CONCLUSION:The interpretation of genotypic data, which are increasingly being collected in surveillance programmes, needs to take account of the underlying vaccination coverage and the level of the importation rate of measles cases into the population.
journal_name
BMC Infect Disjournal_title
BMC infectious diseasesauthors
Nojiri S,Vynnycky E,Gay Ndoi
10.1186/1471-2334-8-44subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2008-04-11 00:00:00pages
44issn
1471-2334pii
1471-2334-8-44journal_volume
8pub_type
杂志文章abstract:BACKGROUND:There are inconsistencies in the literature on reproductive and genital health determinants of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, the primary cause of cervical cancer. We examined these factors in the Ludwig-McGill Cohort Study, a longitudinal, repeated-measurements investigation on the natural history of...
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