Markov models for covariate dependence of binary sequences.

Abstract:

:Suppose that a heterogeneous group of individuals is followed over time and that each individual can be in state 0 or state 1 at each time point. The sequence of states is assumed to follow a binary Markov chain. In this paper we model the transition probabilities for the 0 to 0 and 1 to 0 transitions by two logistic regressions, thus showing how the covariates relate to changes in state. With p covariates, there are 2(p + 1) parameters including intercepts, which we estimate by maximum likelihood. We show how to use transition probability estimates to test hypotheses about the probability of occupying state 0 at time i (i = 2, ..., T) and the equilibrium probability of state 0. These probabilities depend on the covariates. A recursive algorithm is suggested to estimate regression coefficients when some responses are missing. Extensions of the basic model which allow time-dependent covariates and nonstationary or second-order Markov chains are presented. An example shows the model applied to a study of the psychological impact of breast cancer in which women did or did not manifest distress at four time points in the year following surgery.

journal_name

Biometrics

journal_title

Biometrics

authors

Muenz LR,Rubinstein LV

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1985-03-01 00:00:00

pages

91-101

issue

1

eissn

0006-341X

issn

1541-0420

journal_volume

41

pub_type

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