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The impact of diabetes on productivity in China.

Abstract：

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:Diabetes increases the risk of premature death and reduces work productivity. We estimated the impact of diabetes in China in terms of mortality, years of life lost, and productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost in the Chinese population. METHODS:Life table modelling was used with simulated follow-up of those with diabetes in the Chinese population of working age (20-49 years in women and 20-59 years in men) until retirement age (50 years for women and 60 years for men). Data regarding the prevalence of diabetes, as well as excess mortality, labour force dropout and productivity loss attributable to diabetes, were taken from published sources. Models were constructed for the cohort with diabetes and repeated for the same cohort assuming that they had no diabetes. The differences in number of deaths, years of life lived and PALYs lived between the two models reflected the impact of diabetes. The WHO standard 3% annual discount rate was applied to years of life and PALYs lived. RESULTS:In 2017, an estimated 56.4 million people of working age in China (7.1%) had diabetes. With simulated follow-up until retirement, those with diabetes were predicted to experience an estimated 4.1 million more deaths, the loss of an additional 22.7 million years of life (3.7%) and the loss of an additional 75.8 million PALYs (15.1%). This was equivalent to an average of 1.3 PALYs lost per person with diabetes. Based on gross domestic product (GDP) per full-time worker in 2017, the loss in PALYs equated to a total of Chinese ¥17.4 trillion (US$2.6 trillion) in lost GDP owing to reduced productivity, with an average of ¥307,925 (US$45,959) lost per person with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:Our study demonstrates the significant cumulative impact of diabetes on productivity across the working lifetime in the Chinese population, highlighting the potential economic benefits of diabetes prevention in the longer term.

journal_name

Diabetologia

journal_title

Diabetologia

authors

Hird TR,Zomer E,Owen A,Chen L,Ademi Z,Magliano DJ,Liew D

doi

10.1007/s00125-019-4875-4

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-07-01 00:00:00

pages

1195-1203

issue

eissn

0012-186X

issn

1432-0428

pii

10.1007/s00125-019-4875-4

journal_volume

pub_type

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The impact of diabetes on productivity in China.