Abstract：
OBJECTIVES:Interpretation of clinical research findings using the paradigm of null hypothesis significance testing has a number of limitations. These include arbitrary dichotomization of results, lack of incorporation of study power and prior probability, and the confusing use of conditional probability. This study aimed to describe a novel method of P-value interpretation that would address these limitations. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Published clinical research was reinterpreted using the delta likelihood ratio. The delta likelihood ratio is an application of Bayes' rule incorporating the P-value and study power. Calculation of the delta likelihood ratio allows the determination of the most likely effect size using the maximum likelihood principle. RESULTS:We showed that the delta likelihood is easily calculated and produces plausible results using the example of several previously published research studies. Empirical evidence of validity was demonstrated by simulation. CONCLUSION:The delta likelihood ratio and most likely effect size are simple and intuitive metrics to summarize research findings. The delta likelihood ratio incorporates study power and provides a continuous measure of the probability that the research result is a true effect. The most likely effect size is an easily understood metric that should aid the interpretation of research.
journal_name
J Clin Epidemioljournal_title
Journal of clinical epidemiologyauthors
Adams NG,O'Reilly Gdoi
10.1016/j.jclinepi.2017.08.016subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-12-01 00:00:00pages
111-115eissn
0895-4356issn
1878-5921pii
S0895-4356(16)30572-8journal_volume
92pub_type
杂志文章abstract：:In the Upper Bavarian Field Study a total of 1536 persons (15 years and older) were interviewed by research psychiatrists. 8.1% of all respondents took a psychotropic drug during the 7 days prior to the interview. The consumption rate among women was about three times as high as that for men. The use of psychotropic d...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/0895-4356(91)90042-8
更新日期：1991-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:Evidence-based guidelines recommend adjuvant chemotherapy in early stage breast cancer whenever treatment benefit is considered sufficient to outweigh the associated risks. However, many groups of patients were either excluded from or underrepresented in the clinical trials that form the evidence base for thi...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2019.01.006
更新日期：2019-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Both spontaneous reports and single outcome studies may distort the overall safety evaluation of drugs. We identified epidemiologic studies, published from January 1970 to December 1995, that investigated the association of serious adverse effects with aspirin, diclofenac, acetaminophen, and dipyrone to determine and ...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(98)00076-6
更新日期：1998-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Medicine has been dominated by uncontrolled data, often of unproven validity and insufficient to answer clinically important questions pertaining to individual patients. Controlled clinical trials, when designed and conducted rigorously, offer advantages over uncontrolled data, but they cannot be done for everything a...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(98)00042-0
更新日期：1998-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:The aim of this study was to reanalyze and reinterpret data obtained in Paracetamol in Acute Low Back Pain (PACE), the first large randomized controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of paracetamol in acute low back pain, to assess the inferential reproducibility of the original conclusions. STUDY DESIGN AN...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.01.010
更新日期：2020-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Health researchers commonly use logistic regression when profiling health providers. Data from the patients treated by the providers are used to construct models predicting the expected number of outcomes for providers and the ratio of observed to expected outcomes (O/E ratio) used as a risk-adjusted measure of provid...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00048-9
更新日期：2003-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:Graphical methods for generating explanatory hypotheses from limited categorical data are described and illustrated. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Univariate, bivariate, multivariate, and multiplicative graphical methods were applied to clinical data regarding very ill older persons. The data to which these metho...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2011.06.007
更新日期：2012-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:We examined whether a breast cancer risk prediction model other than the Gail et al. model performs better at discriminating between women who will and who will not develop the disease. METHODS:We applied the two published versions of the Rosner and Colditz log-incidence model of breast cancer, developed on ...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00124-0
更新日期：2003-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:Novel cancer therapies are often approved with evidence from a single pivotal trial alone. There are concerns about the credibility of this evidence. Higher validity may be indicated by five methodological and statistical characteristics of pivotal trial evidence that were described by the U.S....
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2019.05.033
更新日期：2019-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Although the placebo in a clinical trial is often considered simply a baseline against which to evaluate the efficacy of a clinical intervention, there is evidence that the magnitude of placebo effect may be a critical factor in determining the results of a trial. This article examines the question of whether devices ...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(00)00206-7
更新日期：2000-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：:In 1984, a prospective cohort study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) was initiated to investigate life-style and other factors that influence, favorably and unfavorably, the evolution of coronary heart disease risk factors during young adulthood. After a year of planning and protocol developm...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/0895-4356(88)90080-7
更新日期：1988-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:To study the statistical power of randomized clinical trials and examine developments over time. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:We analyzed the statistical power in 136,212 clinical trials between 1975 and 2014 extracted from meta-analyses from the Cochrane database of systematic reviews. We determined study powe...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2018.06.014
更新日期：2018-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:The Kaplan-Meier method may overestimate absolute mortality risk (AMR) in the presence of competing risks. Urgent heart transplantation (UHT) and ventricular assist device implantation (VADi) are important competing events in heart failure. We sought to quantify the extent of bias of the Kaplan-Meier method i...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2018.07.006
更新日期：2018-11-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To simulate possible changes in systematic review results if rapid review methods were used. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:We recalculated meta-analyses for binary primary outcomes in Cochrane systematic reviews, simulating rapid review methods. We simulated searching only PubMed, excluding older articles (5, 7, ...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章,meta分析
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2018.12.015
更新日期：2019-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The utility of ordinal logistic regression in the prediction of colorectal neoplasia was demonstrated in a group of 461 consecutive patients undergoing colonoscopy in a community practice. One hundred twenty-nine patients had adenomatous polyps and 34 had colorectal adenocarcinoma. An ordinal logistic regression model...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/0895-4356(91)90159-7
更新日期：1991-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:Elderly patients are inordinately affected by surgical site infections (SSIs). This study derived and internally validated a model that used routinely collected health administrative data to measure the probability of SSI in elderly patients within 30 days of surgery. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:All people exc...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.05.010
更新日期：2016-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:Intervention Modeling Experiments (IMEs) are a way of developing and testing behavior change interventions before a trial. We aimed to test this methodology in a Web-based IME that replicated the trial component of an earlier, paper-based IME. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Three-arm, Web-based randomized evaluat...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.07.008
更新日期：2016-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Three issues concerning the design and analysis of randomized behavioral intervention studies are illustrated and discussed within the framework of a tobacco and alcohol prevention trial among migrant Latino adolescents. The first issue arises when subjects are randomized in clusters rather than individually. Because ...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 临床试验,杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00012-x
更新日期：2003-04-01 00:00:00
abstract：:To identify characteristics of certifying physicians and the deceased that are associated with errors in death certificate completion in Taiwan, we retrospectively reviewed 4123 systematically sampled death certificates issued in 1994. Multivariate analyses were used to assess the associations of various characteristi...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(00)00299-7
更新日期：2001-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:We studied the outcome in 308 patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) admitted to the coronary care unit of Kobe General Hospital. Short-term outcome (within 28 days after MI) and long-term outcome (more than 28 days) were examined with survival curves to find any relationship with a history of previous MI and ...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/0895-4356(92)90186-q
更新日期：1992-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Community intervention evaluations that measure changes over time may conduct repeated cross-sectional surveys, follow a cohort of residents over time, or (often) use both designs. Each survey design has implications for precision and cost. To explore these issues, we assume that two waves of surveys are conducted, an...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/0895-4356(95)00055-0
更新日期：1995-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:To have the "power" of avoiding undersized clinical trials, the customary statistical strategy used in the past few decades is aimed at rejecting both a null stochastic hypothesis and a contradictory alternative hypothesis. This approach gives a trial the "power" to confirm the "insignificance" of differences much sma...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(98)00029-8
更新日期：1998-07-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The similarity in meaning assigned to response choice labels from the SF-36 Health Survey (SF-36) was evaluated across countries. Convenience samples of judges (range, 10 to 117; median = 48) from 13 countries rated translations of response choice labels, using a variation of the Thurstone method of equal appearing in...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(98)00084-5
更新日期：1998-11-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Measurement of physical activity in epidemiological studies is usually achieved by means of a questionnaire. Little work has been done to determine which questionnaire format has greater validity in an elderly population. In this study of elderly subjects, physical activity as reported in two self-administered questio...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/0895-4356(92)90071-t
更新日期：1992-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:Many clinicians and decision makers want to know the combined effects of treatments that have not been evaluated in combination. It is possible to determine such treatment effects by making assumptions about the additive effects. We discuss here the prerequisites and methods of applying additivity assumptions...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2012.07.012
更新日期：2012-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:A patient-administered instrument for dyspepsia and symptoms suggestive of duodenal or gastric ulcer, based on the type of questions asked when taking a patient's history, was developed and tested using the following steps: literature reviews, devising the questions, testing the responses to the questions using factor...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/0895-4356(95)00584-6
更新日期：1996-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:Constructs capturing health or functioning can have reflective and/or formative measurement models. Although a construct's measurement model has extensive implications on the construction, validation, and use of a measurement instrument, measurement models are frequently wrongly or not explicitly specified. ...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2018.07.007
更新日期：2018-11-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:The receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves) are often used to compare continuous diagnostic tests or determine the optimal threshold of a test; however, they do not consider the costs of misclassifications or the disease prevalence. The ROC graph was extended to allow for these aspects. STUDY ...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2015.01.003
更新日期：2015-07-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:This study evaluated search strategies for finding high-quality studies on treatment and systematic reviews in PsycINFO. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Sixty-four journals were hand searched at McMaster University. Methodologic criteria were applied to clinically relevant articles to identify "pass" and "fail" art...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.09.016
更新日期：2008-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Recently updated guidelines by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and the European Society of Cardiology recommend at least 12 hours bed rest in patients with uncomplicated myocardial infarction. METHODS:We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of randomized a...
journal_title：Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi：10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00121-5
更新日期：2003-08-01 00:00:00
