Disease Extinction Versus Persistence in Discrete-Time Epidemic Models.

Abstract:

:We focus on discrete-time infectious disease models in populations that are governed by constant, geometric, Beverton-Holt or Ricker demographic equations, and give a method for computing the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. When [Formula: see text] and the demographic population dynamics are asymptotically constant or under geometric growth (non-oscillatory), we prove global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the disease models. Under the same demographic assumption, when [Formula: see text], we prove uniform persistence of the disease. We apply our theoretical results to specific discrete-time epidemic models that are formulated for SEIR infections, cholera in humans and anthrax in animals. Our simulations show that a unique endemic equilibrium of each of the three specific disease models is asymptotically stable whenever [Formula: see text].

journal_name

Bull Math Biol

authors

van den Driessche P,Yakubu AA

doi

10.1007/s11538-018-0426-2

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-11-01 00:00:00

pages

4412-4446

issue

11

eissn

0092-8240

issn

1522-9602

pii

10.1007/s11538-018-0426-2

journal_volume

81

pub_type

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