Abstract:
OBJECTIVES:As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, countries have collected longer time series of surveillance data, and the AIDS-specific mortality has been substantially reduced by the increasing availability of antiretroviral treatment. A refined model with a greater flexibility to fit longer time series of surveillance data is desired. METHODS:In this article, we present a new epidemiological model that allows the HIV infection rate, r(t), to change over years. The annual change of infection rate is modelled by a linear combination of three key factors: the past prevalence, the past infection rate and a stabilisation condition. We focus on fitting the antenatal clinic (ANC) data and household surveys which are the most commonly available data source for generalised epidemics defined by the overall prevalence being above 1%. A hierarchical model is used to account for the repeated measurement within a clinic. A Bayesian approach is used for the parameter estimation. RESULTS:We evaluate the performance of the newly proposed model on the ANC data collected from urban and rural areas of 31 countries with generalised epidemics in sub-Sahara Africa. The three factors in the proposed model all have significant contributions to the reconstruction of r(t) trends. It improves the prevalence fit over the classic Estimation and Projection Package model and provides more realistic projections when the classic model encounters problems. CONCLUSIONS:The proposed model better captures the main pattern of the HIV/AIDS dynamic. It also retains the simplicity of the classic model with a few interpretable parameters that are easy to interpret and estimate.
journal_name
Sex Transm Infectjournal_title
Sexually transmitted infectionsauthors
Bao Ldoi
10.1136/sextrans-2012-050689subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2012-12-01 00:00:00pages
i58-64eissn
1368-4973issn
1472-3263pii
sextrans-2012-050689journal_volume
88 Suppl 2pub_type
杂志文章abstract:OBJECTIVE:To assess the validity of sexual behaviour data collected from African adolescents using five methods. METHODS:9280 Tanzanian adolescents participated in a biological marker and face to face questionnaire survey and 6079 in an assisted self-completion questionnaire survey; 74 participated in in-depth intervi...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2004.011924
更新日期:2004-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:This paper examines the discordance between biological data of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections and self-reported questionnaire responses among orphan adolescents in Western Kenya. METHODS:In 2011, 837 orphan adolescents from 26 primary schools were enrolled in an HIV prevention trial....
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2014-051720
更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:This exploratory study compared the frequency of condom use errors and problems between men reporting that condom use for penile-vaginal sex was a mutual decision compared with men making the decision unilaterally. METHODS:Nearly 2000 people completed a web-based questionnaire. A sub-sample of 660 men repor...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2007.027755
更新日期:2008-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To review the uptake of a new service for condom provision in the under 16s. METHODS:A retrospective case note review of attenders at an inner London sexual health clinic. RESULTS:The service was audited over a 3 month period in the spring of 2000. There were 97 individual attendances, 94% (92) male and 6%...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.77.4.287
更新日期:2001-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the pathogen profile in men with inflammation of the paraurethral glands. METHODS:We enrolled 40 patients with first-onset, drug-naive inflammation of the paraurethral glands. Discharge from the lesions was collected for Gram staining. Microscopy was performed for screening for trichomonads an...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2013-051180
更新日期:2014-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Anogenital warts (AGWs, condylomata acuminata) are among the most common STIs and may severely impact quality of life (QoL). Available treatment options are characterised by a high proportion of non-responders and recurrences. OBJECTIVE:To systematically review and meta-analyse the available evidence from r...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2016-052768
更新日期:2017-05-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To describe HIV prevalence and the association between syphilis incidence and sexual and drug injection risk behaviours in a cohort of street recruited injecting drug users (IDUs) in Los Angeles County, between 1994 and 1996. METHODS:During the study period, 513 street recruited African-American and Latino ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.76.6.462
更新日期:2000-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Macrolide resistance in Mycoplasma genitalium is emerging globally. There is paucity of data from sub-Saharan Africa where syndromic management is used to treat sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We conducted a molecular epidemiological study to determine the prevalence of azithromycin resistance and ep...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2019-054371
更新日期:2020-05-10 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Concurrency is suggested as an important factor in sexually transmitted infection transmission and acquisition, though little is known regarding factors that may predict concurrency initiation. We examined the association between perception of a partner's non-monogamy (PPNM) and simultaneous or subsequent co...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2015-052111
更新日期:2016-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To develop and evaluate instructional and packaging materials for patient-delivered partner therapy (PDPT). METHODS:64 patients participated from an urban US sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinic. The research comprised three phases: individual interviews to elicit attitudes and beliefs regarding PDPT ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2008.033746
更新日期:2009-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To determine whether there is a link between age at first anal intercourse (AFAI) and gay men's HIV/sexually transmissible infection (STI) vulnerability, including tendencies to engage in higher risk sexual behaviour. METHODS:A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted online involving 845 Australian ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2011-050253
更新日期:2012-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To describe the seroepidemiology of herpes simplex virus (HSV) types 1 and 2 in the general populations of eight European countries to better understand recent reported changes in disease epidemiology. METHODS:Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, England and Wales, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and Slovenia ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sti.2003.005850
更新日期:2004-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To examine the clinical and cost-effectiveness of brief advice for excessive alcohol consumption among people who attend sexual health clinics. METHODS:Two-arm, parallel group, assessor blind, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial. 802 people aged 19 years or over who attended one of three sexual health cl...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2014-051561
更新日期:2015-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To investigate the risk factors for infection and the outcome of pregnancy in women diagnosed with syphilis using a molecular approach. METHODS:Case-control study of pregnant women admitted to a maternity ward, with the cases classified as early or latent maternal syphilis, based on clinical-serological dia...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2012-050552
更新日期:2013-05-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of syphilis and HIV continue to be important yet preventable causes of perinatal and infant morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVES:To systematically review, critically appraise and perform a meta-analysis to evaluate the operational characteristics of dual rapid diagnostic t...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2016-053069
更新日期:2017-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Human trichomoniasis is the most common non-viral sexually transmitted disease, yet immune responses are not well studied. METHODS:Since the Trichomonas vaginalis lipophosphoglycan (TvLPG) is an important virulence factor, a bank of eight monoclonal antibodies was generated to define the antigen in clinical...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2012-051013
更新日期:2013-09-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Serological testing for herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 2 in persons without a history of genital herpes is not recommended, partly because of concerns that an HSV-2 diagnosis would lead to negative psychosocial sequelae. This review aimed to examine the evidence regarding the psychosocial effects of HSV-2 s...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2011-050099
更新日期:2011-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To investigate the contribution of a real-time PCR assay for the detection of Treponema pallidum in various biological specimens with the secondary objective of comparing its value according to HIV status. METHODS:Prospective cohort of incident syphilis cases from three Swiss hospitals (Geneva and Bern Univ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sti.2008.034314
更新日期:2009-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:With increasing use of non-condom-based HIV risk reduction strategies by gay and bisexual men (GBM), we compared occasions of condomless anal intercourse with casual partners (CLAIC) that resulted in HIV transmission and similar occasions when HIV transmission did not occur. METHODS:We compared two demograp...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2016-052749
更新日期:2017-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Australia has provided free quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines to school girls since mid-2007 and a catch-up programme in the community to women aged up to 26 years in 2007-2009. We describe the temporal trend of genital warts in different populations in Melbourne. METHODS:We analysed the prop...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2014-051813
更新日期:2015-05-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:Data were collected from 270 detained male adolescents (aged 14-18 years) to determine the association between ever having been in a gang and a range of sexual behaviours such as sexual activity, male condom use, sex with multiple partners, and drug use during sex. METHODS:Participants answered survey questi...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2004.010926
更新日期:2004-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To measure prevalence of selected sexually transmitted infections (STI) and HIV among female sex workers (SWs) in the red light area of Surat, India, and to evaluate the performance of STI syndrome guidelines (for general population women in India) in this group against the standard aetiological diagnosis of...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.79.2.111
更新日期:2003-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine feasibility, validity, and cost effectiveness of the syndromic approach to male patients with urethral discharge in Bandung, Indonesia. METHODS:The WHO algorithm on urethral discharge with no microscopy available was evaluated. Patients presented with a complaint of urethral discharge and if dis...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
更新日期:1998-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Eosinophilic folliculitis (EF) is a chronic, intensely pruritic condition of unknown pathogenesis that causes marked morbidity in those HIV patients whom it affects. There is a wide differential diagnosis of itchy skin conditions in HIV which are amenable to different treatments. It is therefore essential to take a bi...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.75.5.291
更新日期:1999-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:HIV is now well established in the Caribbean, with prevalence in several countries being surpassed only by those of sub-Saharan Africa. Continuing inward migration from the Caribbean and a high incidence of some bacterial STIs among Britain's black Caribbean communities, suggests a considerable potential for...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2003.006163
更新日期:2004-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Testing for gonorrhoea with nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) is not recommended in low-prevalence populations as it results in high numbers of false positive results. The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends of gonorrhoea positivity by NAAT and culture in heterosexual men in Victoria, Aus...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2015-052246
更新日期:2016-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Recently marketed nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT) for the detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) have improved specificity over previous generation assays. A study to assess the necessity for confirmation of Roche cobas 4800 NG positive samples was undertaken by the Public Health Wales Microbiology ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2013-051410
更新日期:2014-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To link local proinflammatory cytokines with HIV related nucleic acids in cervico-vaginal secretions and the factors associated with them. METHODS:An observational study on 60 HIV positive women attending the department of obstetrics and gynaecology, University of Pavia, Italy. HIV-1 RNA in plasma, proviral...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2003.005157
更新日期:2004-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Evidence suggests that sexual transmission between men has replaced foreign travel as the predominant mode of Shigella transmission in England. However, sexuality and HIV status are not routinely recorded for laboratory-reported Shigella, and the role of HIV in the Shigella epidemic is not well understood. ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2016-052962
更新日期:2018-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Individuals with risk-loving attitudes may be more likely to participate in high-risk sex and gambling. We investigated whether a lottery-based financial incentive to have a negative syphilis test may attract Chinese men who have sex with men (MSM) who practised risky sexual behaviours. METHODS:In July 2018...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2019-054072
更新日期:2020-08-01 00:00:00