Time-series analysis of hepatitis A, B, C and E infections in a large Chinese city: application to prediction analysis.

Abstract:

:Viral hepatitis is recognized as one of the most frequently reported diseases, and especially in China, acute and chronic liver disease due to viral hepatitis has been a major public health problem. The present study aimed to analyse and predict surveillance data of infections of hepatitis A, B, C and E in Wuhan, China, by the method of time-series analysis (MemCalc, Suwa-Trast, Japan). On the basis of spectral analysis, fundamental modes explaining the underlying variation of the data for the years 2004-2008 were assigned. The model was calculated using the fundamental modes and the underlying variation of the data reproduced well. An extension of the model to the year 2009 could predict the data quantitatively. Our study suggests that the present method will allow us to model the temporal pattern of epidemics of viral hepatitis much more effectively than using the artificial neural network, which has been used previously.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Sumi A,Luo T,Zhou D,Yu B,Kong D,Kobayashi N

doi

10.1017/S095026881200146X

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2013-05-01 00:00:00

pages

905-15

issue

5

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S095026881200146X

journal_volume

141

pub_type

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