Abstract:
:Viral hepatitis is recognized as one of the most frequently reported diseases, and especially in China, acute and chronic liver disease due to viral hepatitis has been a major public health problem. The present study aimed to analyse and predict surveillance data of infections of hepatitis A, B, C and E in Wuhan, China, by the method of time-series analysis (MemCalc, Suwa-Trast, Japan). On the basis of spectral analysis, fundamental modes explaining the underlying variation of the data for the years 2004-2008 were assigned. The model was calculated using the fundamental modes and the underlying variation of the data reproduced well. An extension of the model to the year 2009 could predict the data quantitatively. Our study suggests that the present method will allow us to model the temporal pattern of epidemics of viral hepatitis much more effectively than using the artificial neural network, which has been used previously.
journal_name
Epidemiol Infectjournal_title
Epidemiology and infectionauthors
Sumi A,Luo T,Zhou D,Yu B,Kong D,Kobayashi Ndoi
10.1017/S095026881200146Xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2013-05-01 00:00:00pages
905-15issue
5eissn
0950-2688issn
1469-4409pii
S095026881200146Xjournal_volume
141pub_type
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