Abstract:
:To gain insight into pertussis disease dynamics, we studied age-specific long-term periodicity and seasonality of pertussis in The Netherlands. Hierarchical time-series models were used to analyse the monthly reported pertussis incidence in January 1996-June 2006 by age group. The incidence of pertussis showed a slightly increasing long-term trend with highest incidence rates seen in 1996, 1999, 2001 and 2004. For all age groups the annual peak incidence was found in August, except for the 13-18 years age group where the peak occurred in November. Monthly trends in adults showed high correlation with trends in age groups 0-4 years (0.94) and 5-12 years (0.92). We found no evidence for a relationship between annual rises in pertussis and the opening of schools. Concurrent annual fluctuations of pertussis incidence in adults and infants suggest frequent transmission within and between these age groups. Studying trends offers insight into transmission dynamics and may facilitate decisions on future vaccination strategies.
journal_name
Epidemiol Infectjournal_title
Epidemiology and infectionauthors
De Greeff SC,Dekkers AL,Teunis P,Rahamat-Langendoen JC,Mooi FR,De Melker HEdoi
10.1017/S0950268809002489subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-10-01 00:00:00pages
1388-95issue
10eissn
0950-2688issn
1469-4409pii
S0950268809002489journal_volume
137pub_type
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