Seasonal patterns in time series of pertussis.

Abstract:

:To gain insight into pertussis disease dynamics, we studied age-specific long-term periodicity and seasonality of pertussis in The Netherlands. Hierarchical time-series models were used to analyse the monthly reported pertussis incidence in January 1996-June 2006 by age group. The incidence of pertussis showed a slightly increasing long-term trend with highest incidence rates seen in 1996, 1999, 2001 and 2004. For all age groups the annual peak incidence was found in August, except for the 13-18 years age group where the peak occurred in November. Monthly trends in adults showed high correlation with trends in age groups 0-4 years (0.94) and 5-12 years (0.92). We found no evidence for a relationship between annual rises in pertussis and the opening of schools. Concurrent annual fluctuations of pertussis incidence in adults and infants suggest frequent transmission within and between these age groups. Studying trends offers insight into transmission dynamics and may facilitate decisions on future vaccination strategies.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

De Greeff SC,Dekkers AL,Teunis P,Rahamat-Langendoen JC,Mooi FR,De Melker HE

doi

10.1017/S0950268809002489

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2009-10-01 00:00:00

pages

1388-95

issue

10

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268809002489

journal_volume

137

pub_type

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