Abstract:
OBJECTIVES:The uncertainty around number needed to treat (NNT) is often represented through a confidence interval (CI). However, it is not clear how the CI can help inform treatment decisions. We developed decision-theoretic measures of uncertainty for the NNT. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:We build our argument on the basis that a risk-neutral decision maker should always choose the treatment with the highest expected benefit, regardless of uncertainty. From this perspective, uncertainty can be seen as a source of "opportunity loss" owing to its associated chance of choosing the suboptimal treatment. Motivated from the concept of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in decision analysis, we quantify such opportunity loss and propose novel measures of uncertainty around the NNT: the Lost NNT and the Lost Opportunity Index (LOI). RESULTS:The Lost NNT is the quantification of the lost opportunity expressed on the same scale as the NNT. The LOI is a scale-free measure quantifying the loss in terms of the relative efficacy of treatment. We illustrate the method using a sample of published NNT values. CONCLUSION:Decision-theoretic concepts have the potential to be applied in this context to provide measures of uncertainty that can have relevant implications.
journal_name
J Clin Epidemioljournal_title
Journal of clinical epidemiologyauthors
Sadatsafavi M,Ganjizadeh S,Hatala R,Marra C,FitzGerald Mdoi
10.1016/j.jclinepi.2012.01.022subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2012-08-01 00:00:00pages
863-8issue
8eissn
0895-4356issn
1878-5921pii
S0895-4356(12)00075-3journal_volume
65pub_type
杂志文章abstract:OBJECTIVES:Objective and indirect evidence was used to determine whether required author contribution forms were associated with a decrease in author counts in four major general medicine journals (British Medical Journal [BMJ], Journal of the American Medical Association [JAMA], Canadian Medical Association Journal [C...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
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更新日期:2016-07-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
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更新日期:2007-01-01 00:00:00
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更新日期:2003-01-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
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更新日期:2008-07-01 00:00:00
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doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2005.08.006
更新日期:2006-03-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,随机对照试验
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pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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