Abstract:
:There is controversy over whether the incidence rates of schizophrenia and psychotic disorders have changed in recent decades. To detect deviations from trends in incidence, we analysed admission data of patients with an ICD-8/9/10 diagnosis of psychotic disorders in the Canton Zurich / Switzerland, for the period 1977-2005. The data was derived from the central psychiatric register of the Canton Zurich. Ex-post forecasting with ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models was used to assess departures from existing trends. In addition, age-period-cohort analysis was applied to determine hidden birth cohort effects. First admission rates of patients with psychotic disorders were constant in men and showed a downward trend in women. However, the rates in the youngest age groups showed a strong increase in the second half of the 1990's. The trend reversal among the youngest age groups coincides with the increased use of cannabis among young Swiss in the 1990's.
journal_name
Schizophr Resjournal_title
Schizophrenia researchauthors
Ajdacic-Gross V,Lauber C,Warnke I,Haker H,Murray RM,Rössler Wdoi
10.1016/j.schres.2007.06.001subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2007-09-01 00:00:00pages
9-18issue
1-3eissn
0920-9964issn
1573-2509pii
S0920-9964(07)00242-3journal_volume
95pub_type
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