Abstract:
OBJECTIVE:To investigate the behavior of predictive performance measures that are commonly used in external validation of prognostic models for outcome at intensive care units (ICUs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Four prognostic models (Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and the Mortality Probability Models II) were evaluated in the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation registry database. For each model discrimination (AUC), accuracy (Brier score), and two calibration measures were assessed on data from 41,239 ICU admissions. This validation procedure was repeated with smaller subsamples randomly drawn from the database, and the results were compared with those obtained on the entire data set. RESULTS:Differences in performance between the models were small. The AUC and Brier score showed large variation with small samples. Standard errors of AUC values were accurate but the power to detect differences in performance was low. Calibration tests were extremely sensitive to sample size. Direct comparison of performance, without statistical analysis, was unreliable with either measure. CONCLUSION:Substantial sample sizes are required for performance assessment and model comparison in external validation. Calibration statistics and significance tests should not be used in these settings. Instead, a simple customization method to repair lack-of-fit problems is recommended.
journal_name
J Clin Epidemioljournal_title
Journal of clinical epidemiologyauthors
Peek N,Arts DG,Bosman RJ,van der Voort PH,de Keizer NFdoi
10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.08.011subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2007-05-01 00:00:00pages
491-501issue
5eissn
0895-4356issn
1878-5921pii
S0895-4356(06)00418-5journal_volume
60pub_type
杂志文章abstract:OBJECTIVE:Hospital mortality outcomes for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients are a focus of quality improvement programs conducted by government agencies. AMI mortality risk-adjustment models using administrative data typically adjust for baseline differences in mortality risk with a limited set of common and d...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.05.014
更新日期:2007-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate a self-report version of the Home Falls and Accidents Screening Tool (HOME FAST-SR). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:The HOME FAST-SR was designed using expert review, pretesting and piloting. Agreement of self-reported home hazard ratings and ratings by health professionals was evaluated using the kapp...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.02.013
更新日期:2011-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To develop a culturally adapted Bengali version of the Short Form-36 (SF-36) Health Survey and to test its acceptability, reliability, and validity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:The US English SF-36 was translated into Bengali after established cross-cultural adaptation...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2012.05.004
更新日期:2012-11-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:The objective of the study was to identify factors affecting the use of the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement, specifically authors' attitudes toward and experiences with it. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:An online survey was distributed to authors of observa...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2019.07.019
更新日期:2019-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:We provide a case-cohort approach and show that a full competing risk analysis is feasible even in a reduced data set. Competing events for hospital-acquired infections are death or discharge from the hospital because they preclude the observation of such infections. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Using surveilla...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2015.11.011
更新日期:2016-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To identify and summarize published systematic reviews that report results of meta-analyses that combined direct and indirect comparisons. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Narrative review of mixed treatment comparisons (MTCs) reported in systematic reviews of health interventions. MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, Emba...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2013.07.014
更新日期:2014-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To determine what criteria researchers use to assess whether the estimates of effect of an intervention on a dichotomous outcome are different when obtained using different study designs. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Scoping review of the literature. We included studies of dichotomous outcomes in which authors ...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.02.001
更新日期:2016-07-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Timely and comprehensive reporting of clinical trial results builds the backbone of evidence-based medicine and responsible research. The proportion of timely disseminated trial results can inform alternative national and international benchmarking of university medical centers (UMCs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETT...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2019.06.002
更新日期:2019-11-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:Podiatry (chiropody) services are one of the most frequently requested services in primary care. The elderly are given priority access to podiatry services in the UK blocking access for other priority groups. To evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a self-management program as a mea...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00197-5
更新日期:2003-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::We performed analyses to examine the structure, validity, and responsiveness to change of the Marks Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ), originally validated in Australia in a self-administered format, among 539 U.S. subjects with asthma. Subjects were interviewed twice by telephone over an 18-month period. Ba...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(99)00026-8
更新日期:1999-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::The clinical correlates of advanced retinopathy were determined in a sample of 427 type II diabetic outpatients, aged 35 to 74 years, recruited in eight centers from all parts of France. The presence of retinopathy was assessed by fluorescein angiography with centralized interpretation. Advanced retinopathy (prolifera...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1016/0895-4356(95)00582-x
更新日期:1996-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Many longitudinal studies attempt to examine changes in outcome measures over time in groups of patients. Applying conventional analytic techniques, such as a single classical linear regression model, to these data will often not result in minimum variance estimates, and may affect the results of tests of significance...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0895-4356(93)90038-3
更新日期:1993-07-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:The framework consists of cohort or case-series studies with intermittent exposure and two types of events. The aim is to define and estimate an association measure between the exposure and the occurrence of one type of event rather than the other. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:The model and the estimation method...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.07.014
更新日期:2007-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Disinvestment is critical for ensuring the long-term sustainability of health-care services. Key barriers to disinvestment are heterogeneity between research and clinical settings, absence of evidence of effectiveness of some health technologies, and exposure of patients and organizations to risks and poor o...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2013.08.014
更新日期:2014-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Clinimetrics is a methodologic discipline that focuses on the quality of clinical measurements, for example, diagnostic characteristics and disease outcomes. Different clinimetric properties, such as reproducibility and responsiveness, are important in both the development and the evaluation of measurement instruments...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2003.08.012
更新日期:2003-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:In lifestyle intervention trials, participants of the control group often change their behavior despite the request to maintain their usual lifestyle pattern. These changes in the control group and changes in addition to the intended in the intervention group can lead to undesirable confounding effects. STUD...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2009.10.007
更新日期:2010-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::From a database of 93,077 in-patient admissions, patients assigned to catastrophic, very severe, moderately severe, and average 30-day mortality risk categories (as defined in Medicare Hospital Mortality Information, 1989 release, from the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA] were selected for study. These admi...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0895-4356(91)90100-n
更新日期:1991-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Efficient use of cholesterol measurements to screen for coronary heart disease in the elderly is not well defined. The purpose of this report is to examine such screening based on national guidelines in a sample of older men. Since relations between cholesterol and coronary heart disease are better established in thos...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(99)00130-4
更新日期:1999-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Moderate consumers of alcohol have lower mortality than either nondrinkers or heavy drinkers. This systematic review aimed to quantify the level of alcohol consumption (termed the nadir) at which the lowest mortality occurs. Twenty cohort studies reported analyses of all-cause mortality for at least three categories o...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(99)00076-1
更新日期:1999-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:To comprehensively examine comorbidity in unselected cohorts of patients with depression, stroke, multiple sclerosis (MS), Parkinson's disease/parkinsonism (PD/PKM), dementia, migraine, and epilepsy. METHODS:This cross-sectional study used morbidity data recorded by Dutch general practitioners...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.01.005
更新日期:2006-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To systematically review methodological articles which focus on nonpublication of studies and to describe methods of detecting and/or quantifying and/or adjusting for dissemination in meta-analyses. To evaluate whether the methods have been applied to an empirical data set for which one can be reasonably conf...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2016.04.015
更新日期:2016-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To assess the impact of including unpublished data on adverse effects in systematic reviews. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:We carried out a systematic review of methodological evaluations that compared the quantitative reporting of adverse effects data between published and unpublished sources, in particular, the...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.02.009
更新日期:2010-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:Systematic reviews (SRs) are convenient summaries of evidence for health care practitioners. They form a basis for clinical practice guidelines and suggest directions for new research. SRs are most helpful if they are current; however, most of them are not being updated. This SR summarizes strategies and meth...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2007.03.008
更新日期:2007-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Assessment of changes in endemic infections in health care facilities are often based on comparison of infection rates over time. This study compared two methods for calculating and depicting infection data at a hospital-based nursing home care unit. Prospective incidence surveillance of nursing home acquired infectio...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0895-4356(88)90162-x
更新日期:1988-01-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:Loss to follow-up threatens internal and external validity yet little research has examined ways to limit participant attrition. We conducted a systematic review of studies with a primary focus on strategies to retain participants in health care research. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS:We completed searches of Pu...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.11.023
更新日期:2007-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:In a twinning partnership between the Canadian Society for International Health and Kazakhstan's Ministry of Health, a project to build capacity and a process for the adaptation and implementation of international clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) was undertaken. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:A pragmatic CPG a...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2015.05.001
更新日期:2016-01-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To validate the prognostic accuracy of a previously proposed comorbidity index using information of a different and separate population-based cohort. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:We assessed the predictive accuracy of a comorbidity index to predict mortality by looking at calibration and discrimination in the de...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2007.09.006
更新日期:2008-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:Risk difference (RD) is often estimated from relative association measures generated by meta-analysis and a particular group's baseline risk. We describe a problematic situation in using this approach. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:We encountered a meta-analysis in which a confidence interval (CI) of relative ris...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2008.11.005
更新日期:2009-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Randomized trials are the optimal approach for evaluations of treatment efficacy but may not always be feasible. We study the adequacy of the case-control design in evaluating efficacy in a situation where the investigated therapy, namely the administration of magnesium sulfate for the prevention of eclampsia in patie...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(96)00421-0
更新日期:1997-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:A method to generate hypotheses about iatrogenic risk factors and complications from administrative data was developed and tested using hospitalization of the elderly for depression as a model. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Hospital claims were selected for 30,998 elderly inpatients admitted for the first time fo...
journal_title:Journal of clinical epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.08.002
更新日期:2005-02-01 00:00:00