Patient age in Spitz nevus and malignant melanoma: implication of Bayes rule for differential diagnosis.

Abstract:

:In the differential diagnosis of Spitz nevus vs malignant melanoma, patient age provides a critical piece of clinical information, because Spitz nevi occur mostly in children and melanomas occur mostly in adults. Nevertheless, there is overlap in the age distributions of Spitz nevus and melanoma. The issue to consider is how these age distributions and their governing probability densities can impact the a priori probability that a lesion is a Spitz nevus vs a melanoma. Herein I introduce a quantitative approach that uses Bayes rule together with previous published data on the age distributions in Spitz nevi and melanoma. The resulting algorithm yields plots and a table of predictive a priori probabilities of Spitz nevus, given patient age occurring within narrow intervals, and I believe these provide useful guidelines for using age in the differential diagnosis of Spitz nevus and malignant melanoma.

journal_name

Am J Clin Pathol

authors

Vollmer RT

doi

10.1309/E14C-J6KR-D092-DP3M

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2004-06-01 00:00:00

pages

872-7

issue

6

eissn

0002-9173

issn

1943-7722

journal_volume

121

pub_type

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