Abstract:
:Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the "turn-of-the-century drought," was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring-based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.
journal_name
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S Aauthors
Martin JT,Pederson GT,Woodhouse CA,Cook ER,McCabe GJ,Anchukaitis KJ,Wise EK,Erger PJ,Dolan L,McGuire M,Gangopadhyay S,Chase KJ,Littell JS,Gray ST,St George S,Friedman JM,Sauchyn DJ,St-Jacques JM,King Jdoi
10.1073/pnas.1916208117subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-05-26 00:00:00pages
11328-11336issue
21eissn
0027-8424issn
1091-6490pii
1916208117journal_volume
117pub_type
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