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Cross-border portfolio investment networks and indicators for financial crises.

Abstract：

:Cross-border equity and long-term debt securities portfolio investment networks are analysed from 2002 to 2012, covering the 2008 global financial crisis. They serve as network-proxies for measuring the robustness of the global financial system and the interdependence of financial markets, respectively. Two early-warning indicators for financial crises are identified: First, the algebraic connectivity of the equity securities network, as a measure for structural robustness, drops close to zero already in 2005, while there is an over-representation of high-degree off-shore financial centres among the countries most-related to this observation, suggesting an investigation of such nodes with respect to the structural stability of the global financial system. Second, using a phenomenological model, the edge density of the debt securities network is found to describe, and even forecast, the proliferation of several over-the-counter-traded financial derivatives, most prominently credit default swaps, enabling one to detect potentially dangerous levels of market interdependence and systemic risk.

journal_name

Sci Rep

journal_title

Scientific reports

authors

Joseph AC,Joseph SE,Chen G

doi

10.1038/srep03991

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2014-02-10 00:00:00

pages

3991

issn

2045-2322

pii

srep03991

journal_volume

4

pub_type

杂志文章

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