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On the fluctuations of sums of independent random variables.

Abstract：

:If X(1), X(2),... are independent random variables with zero expectation and finite variances, the cumulative sums S(n) are, on the average, of the order of magnitude S(n), where S(n) (2) = E(S(n) (2)). The occasional maxima of the ratios S(n)/S(n) are surprisingly large and the problem is to estimate the extent of their probable fluctuations.Specifically, let S(n) (*) = (S(n) - b(n))/a(n), where {a(n)} and {b(n)}, two numerical sequences. For any interval I, denote by p(I) the probability that the event S(n) (*) epsilon I occurs for infinitely many n. Under mild conditions on {a(n)} and {b(n)}, it is shown that p(I) equals 0 or 1 according as a certain series converges or diverges. To obtain the upper limit of S(n)/a(n), one has to set b(n) = +/- epsilon a(n), but finer results are obtained with smaller b(n). No assumptions concerning the under-lying distributions are made; the criteria explain structurally which features of {X(n)} affect the fluctuations, but for concrete results something about P{S(n)>a(n)} must be known. For example, a complete solution is possible when the X(n) are normal, replacing the classical law of the iterated logarithm. Further concrete estimates may be obtained by combining the new criteria with some recently developed limit theorems.

journal_name

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

journal_title

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

authors

Feller W

doi

10.1073/pnas.63.3.637

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1969-07-01 00:00:00

pages

637-9

issue

3

eissn

0027-8424

issn

1091-6490

journal_volume

63

pub_type

杂志文章

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