Abstract:
:In this work we propose a simple mathematical model for the analysis of the impact of control measures against an emerging infection, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The model provides a testable hypothesis by considering a dynamical equation for the contact parameter, which drops exponentially with time, simulating control measures. We discuss the role of modelling in public health and we analyse the distinction between forecasting and projection models as assessing tools for the estimation of the impact of intervention strategies. The model is applied to the communities of Hong Kong and Toronto (Canada) and it mimics those epidemics with fairly good accuracy. The estimated values for the basic reproduction number, R0, were 1.2 for Hong Kong and 1.32 for Toronto (Canada). The model projects that, in the absence of control, the final number of cases would be 320,000 in Hong Kong and 36,900 in Toronto (Canada). In contrast, with control measures, which reduce the contact rate to about 25% of its initial value, the expected final number of cases is reduced to 1778 in Hong Kong and 226 in Toronto (Canada). Although SARS can be a devastating infection, early recognition, prompt isolation, and appropriate precaution measures, can be very effective to limit its spread.
journal_name
Med Hypothesesjournal_title
Medical hypothesesauthors
Massad E,Burattini MN,Lopez LF,Coutinho FAdoi
10.1016/j.mehy.2004.09.029keywords:
subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2005-01-01 00:00:00pages
17-22issue
1eissn
0306-9877issn
1532-2777pii
S0306-9877(05)00080-0journal_volume
65pub_type
杂志文章abstract::The adaptive value of sleep remains unknown in spite of the intense research performed throughout the last decades. However, few sleep researchers are aware of the difficulties posed by the blind acceptance of an extreme adaptationist viewpoint. Under this philosophy, every anatomical and functional detail present in ...
journal_title:Medical hypotheses
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journal_title:Medical hypotheses
pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章
doi:10.1016/s0306-9877(98)90057-3
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journal_title:Medical hypotheses
pub_type: 杂志文章
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pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
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pub_type: 信件
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更新日期:2020-12-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2010-12-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mehy.2011.03.025
更新日期:2011-07-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Medical hypotheses
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mehy.2006.11.025
更新日期:2007-01-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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journal_title:Medical hypotheses
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journal_title:Medical hypotheses
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2004-01-01 00:00:00
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更新日期:2007-01-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2007-01-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Medical hypotheses
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:1984-12-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Medical hypotheses
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2009-11-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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