Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis.

Abstract:

:The process of making judgments and decisions requires a method for combining data. To compare the accuracy of clinical and mechanical (formal, statistical) data-combination techniques, we performed a meta-analysis on studies of human health and behavior. On average, mechanical-prediction techniques were about 10% more accurate than clinical predictions. Depending on the specific analysis, mechanical prediction substantially outperformed clinical prediction in 33%-47% of studies examined. Although clinical predictions were often as accurate as mechanical predictions, in only a few studies (6%-16%) were they substantially more accurate. Superiority for mechanical-prediction techniques was consistent, regardless of the judgment task, type of judges, judges' amounts of experience, or the types of data being combined. Clinical predictions performed relatively less well when predictors included clinical interview data. These data indicate that mechanical predictions of human behaviors are equal or superior to clinical prediction methods for a wide range of circumstances.

journal_name

Psychol Assess

journal_title

Psychological assessment

authors

Grove WM,Zald DH,Lebow BS,Snitz BE,Nelson C

keywords:

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2000-03-01 00:00:00

pages

19-30

issue

1

eissn

1040-3590

issn

1939-134X

journal_volume

12

pub_type

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