Abstract:
:The process of making judgments and decisions requires a method for combining data. To compare the accuracy of clinical and mechanical (formal, statistical) data-combination techniques, we performed a meta-analysis on studies of human health and behavior. On average, mechanical-prediction techniques were about 10% more accurate than clinical predictions. Depending on the specific analysis, mechanical prediction substantially outperformed clinical prediction in 33%-47% of studies examined. Although clinical predictions were often as accurate as mechanical predictions, in only a few studies (6%-16%) were they substantially more accurate. Superiority for mechanical-prediction techniques was consistent, regardless of the judgment task, type of judges, judges' amounts of experience, or the types of data being combined. Clinical predictions performed relatively less well when predictors included clinical interview data. These data indicate that mechanical predictions of human behaviors are equal or superior to clinical prediction methods for a wide range of circumstances.
journal_name
Psychol Assessjournal_title
Psychological assessmentauthors
Grove WM,Zald DH,Lebow BS,Snitz BE,Nelson Ckeywords:
subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2000-03-01 00:00:00pages
19-30issue
1eissn
1040-3590issn
1939-134Xjournal_volume
12pub_type
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更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00
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