当前位置： SCI文献检索 > Translational Oncology期刊下所有文献 > Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model.

Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model.

Abstract：

OBJECTIVE:To develop a new nomogram tool for predicting survival in middle-aged and elderly patients with rectal adenocarcinoma. METHODS:A total of 6,116 patients were randomly assigned in a 7:3 ratio to training and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in the training set, and two nomogram prognostic models were constructed. The validity, accuracy, discrimination, predictive ability, and clinical utility of the models were assessed based on the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC), Kaplan-Meier survival curve, and decision curve analyses. RESULTS:Predictors of OS and CSS were identified, and nomograms were successfully constructed. The calibration discrimination for both the OS and CSS nomogram prediction models was good (C-index: 0.763 and 0.787, respectively). The AUC showed excellent predictive performance, and the calibration curve exhibited significant predictive power for both nomograms. The time-dependent AUC showed that the predictive ability of the predictor-based nomogram was better than that of the TNM stage. The nomograms successfully discriminated high-, medium-, and low-risk patients for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. The decision curve demonstrated that the nomograms are useful with respect to good decision power. CONCLUSION:Our nomogram survival prediction models may aid in evaluating the prognosis of middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and guiding the selection of the clinical treatment measures.

journal_name

Transl Oncol

journal_title

Translational oncology

authors

Liu H,Lv L,Qu Y,Zheng Z,Zhao J,Liu B,Zhang D,Wang H,Zhang J

doi

10.1016/j.tranon.2020.100938

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2021-01-01 00:00:00

pages

100938

issue

issn

1936-5233

pii

S1936-5233(20)30430-7

journal_volume

pub_type

杂志文章

在线工具

Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model.