Abstract：
BACKGROUND:There currently is a severe Zika Virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil and other South American countries. Due to international travel, this poses severe public health risk of ZIKV importation to other countries. We estimate the prevalence of ZIKV in an import region by the time a microcephaly case is detected, since microcephaly is presently the most significant indication of ZIKV presence. METHODS:We establish a mathematical model to describe ZIKV spread from a source region to an import region. This model incorporates both vector transmission (between humans and mosquitoes) and sexual transmission (from males to females). We take account of population structure through a contact network for sexually active individuals. Parameter values of our model are either taken from the literature or estimated from travel data. RESULTS:This model gives us the probability distribution of time until detection of the first microcephaly case. Based on current field observations, our results also indicate that the percentage of infected pregnant women that results in fetal abnormalities is more likely to be on the smaller end of the 1%-30% spectrum that is currently hypothesized. Our model predicts that for import regions with at least 250,000 people, on average 1,000-12,000 will have been infected by the time of the first detection of microcephaly, and on average 200-1,500 will be infectious at this time. Larger population sizes do not significantly change our predictions. CONCLUSIONS:By the first detection of a microcephaly case, a sizable fraction of the population will have been infected by ZIKV. It is thus clear that adequate surveillance, isolation, and quarantine are needed in susceptible import regions to stop the dissemination of a Zika epidemic.
journal_name
BMC Infect Disjournal_title
BMC infectious diseasesauthors
Saad-Roy CM,van den Driessche P,Ma Jdoi
10.1186/s12879-016-2076-zsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2016-12-12 00:00:00pages
754issue
1issn
1471-2334pii
10.1186/s12879-016-2076-zjournal_volume
16pub_type
杂志文章abstract：BACKGROUND:Migrants are considered a key population at risk for sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases in Europe. Prevalence data to support the design of infectious diseases screening protocols are scarce. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis B and C, human immunodefiency virus (HIV) infection and s...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-018-3041-9
更新日期：2018-03-20 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Armed conflicts are a major contributor to injury and death globally. Conflict-related injuries are associated with a high risk of wound infection, but it is unknown to what extent infection directly relates to sustainment of life and restoration of function. The aim of this study was to investigate the outc...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-018-3149-y
更新日期：2018-05-22 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:While cultivation of pathogens represents a foundational diagnostic approach in the study of infectious diseases, its value for the confirmation of clinical diagnosis of Buruli ulcer is limited by the fact that colonies of Mycobacterium ulcerans appear only after about eight weeks of incubation at 30°C. Howe...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-014-0636-7
更新日期：2014-11-30 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:The inflammasome responses in Treponema pallidum infection have been poorly understood to date. This study aimed to investigate the expression of the nucleotide-binding leucine-rich receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome in the development of tissue inflammation in rabbits infected with T. pallidum. METHOD...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-018-2993-0
更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Acute reduction in hemoglobin levels is frequently seen during sepsis. Previous studies have focused on the management of anemia in patients with septic shock admitted to intensive care units (ICU's), including aggressive blood transfusion aiming to enhance tissue oxygenation. AIM:To study the changes in he...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-016-1882-7
更新日期：2016-10-13 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Men who have sex with men (MSM) bear a high burden of syphilis infection. Expanding syphilis testing to improve timely diagnosis and treatment is critical to improve syphilis control. However, syphilis testing rates remain low among MSM, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We describe the proto...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi：10.1186/s12879-020-05188-z
更新日期：2020-06-29 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis (TB)-associated Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS) is an aberrant inflammatory response in TB patients with advanced human immunodeficiency virus coinfection, after antiretroviral therapy commencement. CASE PRESENTATION:We present a rare case of a 51-year-old woman living wit...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-019-4182-1
更新日期：2019-06-17 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Over 80% of morbidity due to soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) occurs in low-income countries. Children under 5 account for 20-30% of the burden in endemic areas. This study assessed the prevalence, intensity and factors associated with STH infections among preschool-age children (PSAC) in Hoima district,...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-018-3289-0
更新日期：2018-08-17 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Previously thought to be rabies free, Bali experienced an outbreak of animal and human rabies cases in November 2008. We describe the epidemiological and clinical data of human rabies cases occurring in the first two years of the outbreak. METHODS:We analysed the patient records of all rabies cases from the...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/1471-2334-12-81
更新日期：2012-04-02 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:The real burden of smear-positive (PTB+) and bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis (BCTB) in Ethiopia is not known. Thus, the aim of this community-based study was to measure the prevalence and incidence of tuberculosis in the Hetosa District of Oromia Region, Ethiopia. METHODS:First, a population-based ...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-017-2321-0
更新日期：2017-03-16 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:The role of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of interleukin (IL)-28B in predicting therapeutic response of pegylated interferon (peg-IFN) plus ribavirin (PR) for genotype 1 infected chronic hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis (AF) is limited. The aim of this study is to assess its role in predi...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-015-0888-x
更新日期：2015-03-26 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis (TB) is the major cause of death in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-infected individuals. However, diagnosis of TB in HIV remains challenging particularly when HIV infection is advanced. Several gene signatures and serum protein biomarkers have been identified that distinguish active TB from ...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-018-3127-4
更新日期：2018-05-15 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Globally, prison inmates are a high-risk population for tuberculosis (TB), but the specific drivers of disease and impact of mass screening interventions are poorly understood. METHODS:We performed a prospective cohort study to characterize the incidence and risk factors for tuberculosis infection and disea...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-016-1868-5
更新日期：2016-10-03 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:In general, the Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) population has begun to experience the benefits of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART); unfortunately, these benefits have not extended equally to Blacks in the United States, possibly due to differences in pa...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/1471-2334-9-127
更新日期：2009-08-11 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:The Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is proposed to be a zoonotic disease. Dromedary camels have been implicated due to reports that some confirmed cases were exposed to camels. Risk factors for MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections in humans are incompletely understood. This study aimed to describe ...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-016-2137-3
更新日期：2017-01-05 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:The existence of a bi-directional relationship between tuberculosis (TB) and insulin resistance (IR)/diabetes has been alluded to in literature. Although diabetes has been linked to increased tuberculosis risk, the relationship between tuberculosis as a causative factor for IR remains unclear. The study aime...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-017-2657-5
更新日期：2017-08-15 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Local understandings of malaria and use of preventive measures-are critical factors in sustained control of malaria. This study assessed caretakers' knowledge on malaria, use of Long Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets (LLINs) and care-seeking behavior for their children's illness in different malaria transmiss...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-017-2731-z
更新日期：2017-09-18 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Since correct maintenance of intravascular catheters is an effective strategy for preventing central-line infections, the aim of this study was to assess the level of adherence to guidelines for CVC maintenance amongst Italian HCWs. METHODS:From July 2016 thru January 2017, a cross sectional survey was carr...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-018-3514-x
更新日期：2018-12-03 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD) is a serious nosocomial infection, however few studies have assessed CDAD outcome in the intensive care unit (ICU). We evaluated the epidemiology, clinical course and outcome of hospital-acquired CDAD in the critical care setting. METHODS:We performed a histor...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/1471-2334-7-42
更新日期：2007-05-21 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:There is conclusive evidence that human papillomavirus (HPV) infections of the cervix are a necessary cause of cervical cancer. In Italy there are consistent data of HPV prevalence in women aged 25 - 64 years, but there is limited data for younger women. The objective of this on-going 3-year prospective coho...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/1471-2334-10-157
更新日期：2010-06-07 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:To investigate a possible role of Cefditoren, a recently marketed in Greece third-generation oral cephalosporin in urinary infections of outpatients. METHODS:During a multicenter survey of Enterobacteriaceae causing UTIs in outpatients during 2005-2007, Cefditoren MICs were determined by agar dilution metho...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi：10.1186/1471-2334-12-228
更新日期：2012-09-25 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Beijing genotype strains are the most predominant strains in China. The aim of this study was to explore risk factors and clinical phenotypes associated with infection with Beijing genotype strains among tuberculosis patients in China. METHODS:Using data and strains derived from the first Chinese national d...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/1471-2334-12-354
更新日期：2012-12-17 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Bacterial infections are the most frequent complications in patients with malignancy, and the epidemiology of nosocomial infections among cancer patients has changed over time. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics, antibiotic resistance patterns, and prognosis of nosocomial infections due to mult...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-020-05181-6
更新日期：2020-06-29 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:A vaccine matched to a newly emerged pandemic influenza virus would require a production time of at least 6 months with current proven techniques, and so could only be used reactively after the peak of the pandemic. A pre-pandemic vaccine, although probably having lower efficacy, could be produced and used p...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/1471-2334-14-266
更新日期：2014-05-16 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Maintaining the quality of clinical specimens for tuberculosis (TB) testing is a major challenge in many high TB burden-limited resources countries. Sample referral systems in low and middle income countries are often weak and the maintenance of the cold-chain challenging and very costly for TB programs. The...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-017-2756-3
更新日期：2017-10-02 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Direct immunofluorescence assays (DFA) are a rapid and inexpensive method for the detection of respiratory viruses and may therefore be used for surveillance. Few epidemiological studies have been published based solely on DFA and none included respiratory picornaviruses and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). We ...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/1471-2334-11-41
更新日期：2011-02-07 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:The inefficiency of the current tachyzoite antigen-based serological assays for the serodiagnosis of Toxoplasma gondii infection mandates the need for acquirement of reliable and standard diagnostic reagents. Recently, epitope-based antigens have emerged as an alternative diagnostic marker for the achievemen...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-017-2920-9
更新日期：2017-12-29 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:The State of Ceará, in Northeastern Brazil, suffers from a triple burden of arboviruses (dengue, Zika and chikungunya). We measured the seroprevalence of chikungunya, dengue and Zika and its associated factors in the population of Juazeiro do Norte, Southern Ceará State, Brazil. METHODS:A cross-sectional st...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-020-05611-5
更新日期：2020-11-24 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:After allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), Hepatitis B virus reactivation (HBVr) can be observed in patients with previous resolved Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections. Nephrotic syndrome (NS) is the main clinical manifestation of HBsAg-positive glomerulonephritis. However, the dev...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-019-3690-3
更新日期：2019-01-16 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Pregnant women in malaria endemic areas are at high risk of P. falciparum infection and its complications. This study investigated the prevalence and risk factors for P. falciparum infection and malaria among pregnant women reporting for first antenatal care (ANC) clinic visit in the mount Cameroon area. ME...
journal_title：BMC infectious diseases
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1186/s12879-015-1211-6
更新日期：2015-10-22 00:00:00
