Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-2025.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is currently the fifth leading cause of death in Australia, and there are marked differences in mortality trends between men and women. In this study, we have sought to model and forecast age related changes in COPD mortality over time for men and women separately over the period 2006-2025. METHODS:Annual COPD death rates in Australia from 1922 to 2005 for age groups (50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+) were used. Functional time series models of age-specific COPD mortality rates for men and women were used, and forecasts of mortality rates were modelled separately for men and women. RESULTS:Functional time series models with four basis functions were fitted to each population separately. Twenty-year forecasts were computed, and indicated an overall decline. This decline may be slower for women than for men. By age, we expect similar rates of decline in men over time. In contrast, for women, forecasts for the age group 75-79 years suggest less of a decline over time compared to younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS:By using a new method to predict age-specific trends in COPD mortality over time, this study provides important insights into at-risk age groups for men and women separately, which has implications for policy and program development.

journal_name

BMC Med Res Methodol

authors

Erbas B,Ullah S,Hyndman RJ,Scollo M,Abramson M

doi

10.1186/1471-2288-12-17

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2012-02-21 00:00:00

pages

17

issn

1471-2288

pii

1471-2288-12-17

journal_volume

12

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not av...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-016-0288-y

    authors: Hu XF,Young K,Chan HM

    更新日期:2017-01-23 00:00:00

  • Psychometric analysis of the brief symptom inventory 18 (BSI-18) in a representative German sample.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The BSI-18 contains the three six-item scales somatization, depression, and anxiety as well as the Global Severity Index (GSI), including all 18 items. The BSI-18 is the latest and shortest of the multidimensional versions of the Symptom-Checklist 90-R, but its psychometric properties have not been sufficien...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-016-0283-3

    authors: Franke GH,Jaeger S,Glaesmer H,Barkmann C,Petrowski K,Braehler E

    更新日期:2017-01-26 00:00:00

  • Investigating hospital heterogeneity with a multi-state frailty model: application to nosocomial pneumonia disease in intensive care units.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Multistate models have become increasingly useful to study the evolution of a patient's state over time in intensive care units ICU (e.g. admission, infections, alive discharge or death in ICU). In addition, in critically-ill patients, data come from different ICUs, and because observations are clustered int...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-12-79

    authors: Liquet B,Timsit JF,Rondeau V

    更新日期:2012-06-15 00:00:00

  • An accurate test for homogeneity of odds ratios based on Cochran's Q-statistic.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:A frequently used statistic for testing homogeneity in a meta-analysis of K independent studies is Cochran's Q. For a standard test of homogeneity the Q statistic is referred to a chi-square distribution with K-1 degrees of freedom. For the situation in which the effects of the studies are logarithms of odds...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0034-x

    authors: Kulinskaya E,Dollinger MB

    更新日期:2015-06-10 00:00:00

  • Which resources should be used to identify RCT/CCTs for systematic reviews: a systematic review.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Systematic reviewers seek to comprehensively search for relevant studies and summarize these to present the most valid estimate of intervention effectiveness. The more resources searched, the higher the yield, and thus time and costs required to conduct a systematic review. While there is an abundance of evi...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-5-24

    authors: Crumley ET,Wiebe N,Cramer K,Klassen TP,Hartling L

    更新日期:2005-08-10 00:00:00

  • Longitudinal studies that use data collected as part of usual care risk reporting biased results: a systematic review.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Longitudinal studies using data collected as part of usual care risk providing biased results if visit times are related to the outcome of interest. Statistical methods for mitigating this bias are available but rarely used. This lack of use could be attributed to a lack of need or to a lack of awareness of ...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1186/s12874-017-0418-1

    authors: Farzanfar D,Abumuamar A,Kim J,Sirotich E,Wang Y,Pullenayegum E

    更新日期:2017-09-06 00:00:00

  • Heckman-type selection models to obtain unbiased estimates with missing measures outcome: theoretical considerations and an application to missing birth weight data.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:In low-income settings, key outcomes such as biomarkers or clinical assessments are often missing for a substantial proportion of the study population. The aim of this study was to assess the extent to which Heckman-type selection models can create unbiased estimates in such settings. METHODS:We introduce t...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-019-0840-7

    authors: Koné S,Bonfoh B,Dao D,Koné I,Fink G

    更新日期:2019-12-09 00:00:00

  • Generating evidence on a risk-based monitoring approach in the academic setting - lessons learned.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:In spite of efforts to employ risk-based strategies to increase monitoring efficiency in the academic setting, empirical evidence on their effectiveness remains sparse. This mixed-methods study aimed to evaluate the risk-based on-site monitoring approach currently followed at our academic institution. METHO...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-017-0308-6

    authors: von Niederhäusern B,Orleth A,Schädelin S,Rawi N,Velkopolszky M,Becherer C,Benkert P,Satalkar P,Briel M,Pauli-Magnus C

    更新日期:2017-02-14 00:00:00

  • Survival prediction models since liver transplantation - comparisons between Cox models and machine learning techniques.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Predicting survival of recipients after liver transplantation is regarded as one of the most important challenges in contemporary medicine. Hence, improving on current prediction models is of great interest.Nowadays, there is a strong discussion in the medical field about machine learning (ML) and whether it...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-020-01153-1

    authors: Kantidakis G,Putter H,Lancia C,Boer J,Braat AE,Fiocco M

    更新日期:2020-11-16 00:00:00

  • High-performing physicians are more likely to participate in a research study: findings from a quality improvement study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Participants in voluntary research present a different demographic profile than those who choose not to participate, affecting the generalizability of many studies. Efforts to evaluate these differences have faced challenges, as little information is available from non-participants. Leveraging data from a re...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-019-0809-6

    authors: Dahrouge S,Armstrong CD,Hogg W,Singh J,Liddy C

    更新日期:2019-08-07 00:00:00

  • Factors associated with reporting multiple causes of death.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:There is analytical potential for multiple cause of death data collected from death certificates. This study examines relationships of multiple causes of death as a function of factors available on the death certificate (demographics of decedent, place of death, type of certifier, disposal method, whether an...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-5-4

    authors: Wall MM,Huang J,Oswald J,McCullen D

    更新日期:2005-01-17 00:00:00

  • Good agreement between questionnaire and administrative databases for health care use and costs in patients with osteoarthritis.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Estimating costs is essential to the economic analysis of health care programs. Health care costs are often captured from administrative databases or by patient report. Administrative records only provide a partial representation of health care costs and have additional limitations. Patient-completed questio...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-11-45

    authors: Pinto D,Robertson MC,Hansen P,Abbott JH

    更新日期:2011-04-13 00:00:00

  • Does the provision of a DVD-based audio-visual presentation improve recruitment in a clinical trial? A randomised trial of DVD trial invitations.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Recruitment to clinical trials can be challenging. Methods that improve the efficiency of trial recruitment are needed to increase successful study completions. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether sending an audio-visual presentation on a digital versatile disc (DVD), along with usual study invita...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1186/s12874-019-0663-6

    authors: Rogers A,Flynn RWV,Mackenzie IS,MacDonald TM

    更新日期:2019-01-30 00:00:00

  • Translation method is validity evidence for construct equivalence: analysis of secondary data routinely collected during translations of the Health Literacy Questionnaire (HLQ).

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Cross-cultural research with patient-reported outcomes measures (PROMs) assumes that the PROM in the target language will measure the same construct in the same way as the PROM in the source language. Yet translation methods are rarely used to qualitatively maximise construct equivalence or to describe the i...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-020-00962-8

    authors: Hawkins M,Cheng C,Elsworth GR,Osborne RH

    更新日期:2020-05-26 00:00:00

  • The fading of reported effectiveness. A meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The "real" effect size of a medical therapy is constant over time. In contrast, the effect size reported in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) may change over time because the sum of all kinds of bias influencing the reported effectiveness is not necessarily constant. As this would affect the validity of me...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-6-25

    authors: Gehr BT,Weiss C,Porzsolt F

    更新日期:2006-05-11 00:00:00

  • Accounting for misclassification bias of binary outcomes due to underscreening: a sensitivity analysis.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Diagnostic tests are performed in a subset of the population who are at higher risk, resulting in undiagnosed cases among those who do not receive the test. This poses a challenge for estimating the prevalence of the disease in the study population, and also for studying the risk factors for the disease. ME...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-017-0447-9

    authors: Zhang N,Cheng S,Ambroggio L,Florin TA,Macaluso M

    更新日期:2017-12-12 00:00:00

  • Understanding the predictive value of continuous markers for censored survival data using a likelihood ratio approach.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The likelihood ratio function (LR), the ratio of conditional probabilities of obtaining a specific marker value among those with the event of interest over those without, provides an easily interpretable way to quantify the update of the risk prediction due to the knowledge of the marker value. The LR has be...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-019-0721-0

    authors: Smith AM,Christodouleas JP,Hwang WT

    更新日期:2019-05-22 00:00:00

  • Evaluation of a modified version of the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory-Short Form.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Posttraumatic growth is the positive change resulting from traumatic experiences and is typically assessed with retrospective measures like the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI). The PTGI was designed to include reference to a specific traumatic event, making it difficult to implement, without change, in...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-017-0344-2

    authors: Kaur N,Porter B,LeardMann CA,Tobin LE,Lemus H,Luxton DD,Millennium Cohort Study Team.

    更新日期:2017-04-20 00:00:00

  • On the censored cost-effectiveness analysis using copula information.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Information and theory beyond copula concepts are essential to understand the dependence relationship between several marginal covariates distributions. In a therapeutic trial data scheme, most of the time, censoring occurs. That could lead to a biased interpretation of the dependence relationship between ma...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-017-0305-9

    authors: Fontaine C,Daurès JP,Landais P

    更新日期:2017-02-15 00:00:00

  • Bias due to censoring of deaths when calculating extra length of stay for patients acquiring a hospital infection.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:In many studies the information of patients who are dying in the hospital is censored when examining the change in length of hospital stay (cLOS) due to hospital-acquired infections (HIs). While appropriate estimators of cLOS are available in literature, the existence of the bias due to censoring of deaths w...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-018-0500-3

    authors: Rahman S,von Cube M,Schumacher M,Wolkewitz M

    更新日期:2018-05-30 00:00:00

  • Can electronic search engines optimize screening of search results in systematic reviews: an empirical study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Most electronic search efforts directed at identifying primary studies for inclusion in systematic reviews rely on the optimal Boolean search features of search interfaces such as DIALOG and Ovid. Our objective is to test the ability of an Ultraseek search engine to rank MEDLINE records of the included studi...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-6-7

    authors: Sampson M,Barrowman NJ,Moher D,Clifford TJ,Platt RW,Morrison A,Klassen TP,Zhang L

    更新日期:2006-02-24 00:00:00

  • An international survey of physicians regarding clinical trials: a comparison between Kyoto University Hospital and Seoul National University Hospital.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:International clinical trials are now rapidly expanding into Asia. However, the proportion of global trials is higher in South Korea compared to Japan despite implementation of similar governmental support in both countries. The difference in clinical trial environment might influence the respective physicia...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-13-130

    authors: Ito-Ihara T,Hong JH,Kim OJ,Sumi E,Kim SY,Tanaka S,Narita K,Hatta T,Choi EK,Choi KJ,Miyagawa T,Minami M,Murayama T,Yokode M

    更新日期:2013-10-25 00:00:00

  • Cross-cultural validation of the Functional Vision Questionnaire for Children and Young People (FVQ_CYP) with visual impairment in the Dutch population: challenges and opportunities.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:To assess cross-cultural validity between Dutch and English versions of the FVQ_CYP, a patient-reported outcome measure developed in the United Kingdom (UK) for children and adolescents with (severe) visual impairment or blindness (VI for brevity) to measure functional vision. METHODS:The 36-item FVQ_CYP wa...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-019-0875-9

    authors: Elsman EBM,Tadić V,Peeters CFW,van Rens GHMB,Rahi JS,van Nispen RMA

    更新日期:2019-12-03 00:00:00

  • A transdisciplinary team approach to scoping reviews: the case of pediatric polypharmacy.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Polypharmacy can be either beneficial or harmful to children. We conducted a scoping review to examine the concept of pediatric polypharmacy: its definition, prevalence, extent and gaps in research. In this manuscript, we report our transdisciplinary scoping review methodology. METHODS:After establishing a ...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-018-0560-4

    authors: Bakaki PM,Staley J,Liu R,Dawson N,Golchin N,Horace A,Johnson H,Waldron J,Winterstein A,Kleinman LC,Bolen SD

    更新日期:2018-10-04 00:00:00

  • The use of relative incidence ratios in self-controlled case series studies: an overview.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The self-controlled case series (SCCS) is a useful design for investigating associations between outcomes and transient exposures. The SCCS design controls for all fixed covariates, but effect modification can still occur. This can be evaluated by including interaction terms in the model which, when exponent...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-016-0225-0

    authors: Hawken S,Potter BK,Little J,Benchimol EI,Mahmud S,Ducharme R,Wilson K

    更新日期:2016-09-23 00:00:00

  • Modern modelling techniques are data hungry: a simulation study for predicting dichotomous endpoints.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Modern modelling techniques may potentially provide more accurate predictions of binary outcomes than classical techniques. We aimed to study the predictive performance of different modelling techniques in relation to the effective sample size ("data hungriness"). METHODS:We performed simulation studies bas...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-14-137

    authors: van der Ploeg T,Austin PC,Steyerberg EW

    更新日期:2014-12-22 00:00:00

  • Quasi-linear Cox proportional hazards model with cross- L1 penalty.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:To accurately predict the response to treatment, we need a stable and effective risk score that can be calculated from patient characteristics. When we evaluate such risks from time-to-event data with right-censoring, Cox's proportional hazards model is the most popular for estimating the linear risk score. ...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12874-020-01063-2

    authors: Omae K,Eguchi S

    更新日期:2020-07-06 00:00:00

  • Misclassification of incident conditions using claims data: impact of varying the period used to exclude pre-existing disease.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Estimating the incidence of medical conditions using claims data often requires constructing a prevalence period that predates an event of interest, for instance the diagnosis of cancer, to exclude those with pre-existing conditions from the incidence risk set. Those conditions missed during the prevalence p...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-13-32

    authors: Griffiths RI,O'Malley CD,Herbert RJ,Danese MD

    更新日期:2013-03-06 00:00:00

  • Optimal likelihood-ratio multiple testing with application to Alzheimer's disease and questionable dementia.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Controlling the false discovery rate is important when testing multiple hypotheses. To enhance the detection capability of a false discovery rate control test, we applied the likelihood ratio-based multiple testing method in neuroimage data and compared the performance with the existing methods. METHODS:We ...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-15-9

    authors: Lee D,Kang H,Kim E,Lee H,Kim H,Kim YK,Lee Y,Lee DS

    更新日期:2015-01-30 00:00:00

  • A statistical model to assess the risk of communicable diseases associated with multiple exposures in healthcare settings.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The occurrence of communicable diseases (CD) depends on exposure to contagious persons. The effects of exposure to CD are delayed in time and contagious persons remain contagious for several days during which their contagiousness varies. Moreover when multiple exposures occur, it is difficult to know which e...

    journal_title:BMC medical research methodology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2288-13-26

    authors: Payet C,Voirin N,Vanhems P,Ecochard R

    更新日期:2013-02-20 00:00:00