Measuring vaccine efficacy from epidemics of acute infectious agents.

Abstract:

:A good measure of field vaccine efficacy should evaluate the direct protective effect of vaccination on the person who receives the vaccine. The conventional estimator for vaccine efficacy depends on population level factors that are either unrelated or indirectly related to the direct biological action of the vaccine on persons, including population structure, duration of the study, the fraction vaccinated, and herd immunity, that is, indirect effects. Indirect effects can cause the conventional vaccine efficacy estimator to be inaccurate. We review alternative vaccine efficacy estimators that control for indirect effects at the population level. Thus, they are more accurate than the conventional estimator. We use epidemic simulations to explore the robustness of the conventional and proposed estimators under different field conditions. In addition, we apply the different vaccine efficacy estimators to data from a measles epidemic in Muyinga, Burundi.

journal_name

Stat Med

journal_title

Statistics in medicine

authors

Longini IM Jr,Halloran ME,Haber M,Chen RT

doi

10.1002/sim.4780120309

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1993-02-01 00:00:00

pages

249-63

issue

3-4

eissn

0277-6715

issn

1097-0258

journal_volume

12

pub_type

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