On the impact of residential history in the spatial analysis of diseases with a long latency period: A study of mesothelioma in Belgium.

Abstract:

:Mesothelioma is a rare cancer caused by exposure to asbestos. Belgium has a known long history of asbestos production, resulting in one of the highest mesothelioma mortality rates worldwide. While the production of asbestos has stopped completely, the long latency period of mesothelioma, which can fluctuate between 20 and 40 years after exposure, causes incidences still to be frequent. Mesothelioma's long incubation time affects our assessment of its geographical distribution as well. Since patients' residential locations are likely to change a number of times throughout their lives, the location where the patients develop the disease is often far from the location where they were exposed to asbestos. Using the residential history of patients, we propose the use of a convolution multiple membership model (MMM), which includes both a spatial conditional autoregressive and an unstructured random effect. Pancreatic cancer patients are used as a control population, reflecting the population at risk for mesothelioma. Results show the impact of the residential mobility on the geographical risk estimation, as well as the importance of acknowledging the latency period of a disease. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the properties of the convolution MMM. The robustness of the results for the convolution MMM is assessed via a sensitivity analysis.

journal_name

Stat Med

journal_title

Statistics in medicine

authors

Petrof O,Neyens T,Nuyts V,Nackaerts K,Nemery B,Faes C

doi

10.1002/sim.8697

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-11-20 00:00:00

pages

3840-3866

issue

26

eissn

0277-6715

issn

1097-0258

journal_volume

39

pub_type

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