Assessing the incremental predictive performance of novel biomarkers over standard predictors.

Abstract:

:It is unclear to what extent the incremental predictive performance of a novel biomarker is impacted by the method used to control for standard predictors. We investigated whether adding a biomarker to a model with a published risk score overestimates its incremental performance as compared to adding it to a multivariable model with individual predictors (or a composite risk score estimated from the sample of interest) and to a null model. We used 1000 simulated datasets (with a range of risk factor distributions and event rates) to compare these methods, using the continuous net reclassification index (NRI), the integrated discrimination index (IDI), and change in the C-statistic as discrimination metrics. The new biomarker was added to the following: null model, model including a published risk score, model including a composite risk score estimated from the sample of interest, and multivariable model with individual predictors. We observed a gradient in the incremental performance of the biomarker, with the null model resulting in the highest predictive performance of the biomarker and the model using individual predictors resulting in the lowest (mean increases in C-statistic between models without and with the biomarker: 0.261, 0.085, 0.030, and 0.031; NRI: 0.767, 0.621, 0.513, and 0.530; IDI: 0.153, 0.093, 0.053 and 0.057, respectively). These findings were supported by the Framingham Study data predicting atrial fibrillation using novel biomarkers. We recommend that authors report the effect of a new biomarker after controlling for standard predictors modeled as individual variables.

journal_name

Stat Med

journal_title

Statistics in medicine

authors

Xanthakis V,Sullivan LM,Vasan RS,Benjamin EJ,Massaro JM,D'Agostino RB Sr,Pencina MJ

doi

10.1002/sim.6165

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2014-07-10 00:00:00

pages

2577-84

issue

15

eissn

0277-6715

issn

1097-0258

journal_volume

33

pub_type

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