Risk assessment of yellow fever urbanization in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Abstract:

:Yellow fever (YF), an arthropod-borne viral disease, occurs in regions of tropical America and Africa. Sylvatic YF is endemic in the north and west of Brazil. Urban YF, on the other hand, has not been reported in the country since 1942. However, the widespread presence of the YF urban vector in Brazil has lead to concern about the potential re-emergence of YF in urban centres. Here, we assess the risk of YF emergence in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, by estimating the probability of infected individuals arriving from YF-endemic areas, and the probability of infective individuals triggering an epidemic. We found that the risk of urban YF emergence may reach values as high as 29% during the epizootic periods but the precision of the estimate is low.

authors

Codeço CT,Luz PM,Struchiner CJ

doi

10.1016/j.trstmh.2003.12.019

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2004-12-01 00:00:00

pages

702-10

issue

12

eissn

0035-9203

issn

1878-3503

pii

S0035-9203(04)00172-5

journal_volume

98

pub_type

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