Seasonal and other short-term influences on United States AIDS incidence.

Abstract:

:This paper models monthly AIDS diagnosis counts in terms of smooth secular trend, calendar month effects, and the number of workdays per month. A parameterization of month effects allows separation of true seasonal effects from a linear trend over the calendar year and an arbitrary June effect. There is strong evidence for seasonal patterns, other calendar month effects, and workday effects. Examination of subgroups defined by reporting delay, initial diagnosis, risk group, and region shows evidence for seasonal patterns in some diagnosis groups, for effects due to imputed diagnosis dates, and for effects due to patients' choices of when to seek diagnosis.

journal_name

Stat Med

journal_title

Statistics in medicine

authors

Bacchetti P

doi

10.1002/sim.4780131905

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1994-10-15 00:00:00

pages

1921-31

issue

19-20

eissn

0277-6715

issn

1097-0258

journal_volume

13

pub_type

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