Predictive Model for Neoplastic Potential of Gallbladder Polyp.

Abstract:

GOAL:To provide the statistical predictive model for neoplastic potential of gallbladder polyp (GBP). BACKGROUND:Many studies have attempted to define the risk factors for neoplastic potential of GBP. It remains difficult to precisely adapt the reported risk factors for the decision of surgery. Estimating the probability for neoplastic potential of GBP using a combination of several risk factors before surgical resection would be useful in patient consultation. STUDY:We collected data of patients confirmed as GBP through cholecystectomy at Samsung Medical Center between January 1997 and March 2015. Those with a definite evidence for malignancy, such as adjacent organ invasion, metastasis on preoperative imaging studies, polyp >15 mm, and absence of proper preoperative ultrasonographic imaging were excluded. A total of 1976 patients were enrolled. To make and validate the predictive model, we divided the cohort into the modeling group (n=979) and validation group (n=997). Clinical information, ultrasonographic findings, and blood tests were retrospectively analyzed. RESULTS:Clinical factors of older age, single lesion, sessile shape, and polyp size showed statistical significance for neoplastic potential of GBP in the modeling group. A predictive model for neoplastic potential of GBP was constructed utilizing the statistical outcome of the modeling group. Statistical validation was performed with the validation group to determine the optimal clinical sensitivity and specificity of the predictive model. Optimal cut-off value for neoplastic probability was 7.4%. CONCLUSIONS:The predictive model for neoplastic potential of GBP may support clinical decisions before cholecystectomy.

journal_name

J Clin Gastroenterol

authors

Yang JI,Lee JK,Ahn DG,Park JK,Lee KH,Lee KT,Chi SA,Jung SH

doi

10.1097/MCG.0000000000000900

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2018-03-01 00:00:00

pages

273-276

issue

3

eissn

0192-0790

issn

1539-2031

journal_volume

52

pub_type

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