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Instrumental-Variables Simultaneous Equations Model of Physical Activity and Body Mass Index: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

Abstract：

:We used full-system-estimation instrumental-variables simultaneous equations modeling (IV-SEM) to examine physical activity relative to body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) using 25 years of data (1985/1986 to 2010/2011) from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study (n = 5,115; ages 18-30 years at enrollment). Neighborhood environment and sociodemographic instruments were used to characterize physical activity, fast-food consumption, smoking, alcohol consumption, marriage, and childbearing (women) and to predict BMI using semiparametric full-information maximum likelihood estimation to control for unobserved time-invariant and time-varying residual confounding and differential measurement error through model-derived discrete random effects. Comparing robust-variance ordinary least squares, random-effects regression, fixed-effects regression, single-equation-estimation IV-SEM, and full-system-estimation IV-SEM, estimates from random- and fixed-effects models and the full-system-estimation IV-SEM were unexpectedly similar, despite the lack of control for residual confounding with the random-effects estimator. Ordinary least squares tended to overstate the significance of health behaviors in BMI, while results from single-equation-estimation IV-SEM were notably different, revealing the impact of weak instruments in standard instrumental-variable methods. Our robust findings for fixed effects (which does not require instruments but has a high cost in lost degrees of freedom) and full-system-estimation IV-SEM (vs. standard IV-SEM) demonstrate potential for a full-system-estimation IV-SEM method even with weak instruments.

journal_name

Am J Epidemiol

journal_title

American journal of epidemiology

authors

Meyer KA,Guilkey DK,Tien HC,Kiefe CI,Popkin BM,Gordon-Larsen P

doi

10.1093/aje/kww010

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-09-15 00:00:00

pages

465-76

issue

eissn

0002-9262

issn

1476-6256

pii

kww010

journal_volume

184

pub_type

杂志文章

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Instrumental-Variables Simultaneous Equations Model of Physical Activity and Body Mass Index: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.