Abstract:
:The locally accumulated damage by tropical cyclones (TCs) can intensify substantially when these cyclones move more slowly. While some observational evidence suggests that TC motion might have slowed significantly since the mid-20th century (1), the robustness of the observed trend and its relation to anthropogenic warming have not been firmly established (2-4). Using large-ensemble simulations that directly simulate TC activity, we show that future anthropogenic warming can lead to a robust slowing of TC motion, particularly in the midlatitudes. The slowdown there is related to a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, which has been projected by various climate models. Although the model's simulation of historical TC motion trends suggests that the attribution of the observed trends of TC motion to anthropogenic forcings remains uncertain, our findings suggest that 21st-century anthropogenic warming could decelerate TC motion near populated midlatitude regions in Asia and North America, potentially compounding future TC-related damages.
journal_name
Sci Advjournal_title
Science advancesauthors
Zhang G,Murakami H,Knutson TR,Mizuta R,Yoshida Kdoi
10.1126/sciadv.aaz7610subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-04-22 00:00:00pages
eaaz7610issue
17issn
2375-2548pii
aaz7610journal_volume
6pub_type
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