Assessing mumps outbreak risk in highly vaccinated populations using spatial seroprevalence data.

Abstract:

:Mumps is a potentially severe viral infection. The incidence of mumps has declined dramatically in high-income countries since the introduction of mumps antigen-containing vaccines. However, recent large outbreaks of mumps in highly vaccinated populations suggest waning of vaccine-induced immunity and primary vaccine failure. In this paper we present a simple method for identifying geographic regions with high outbreak potential, demonstrated using 2006 mumps seroprevalence data from Belgium and Belgian vaccination coverage data. Predictions of the outbreak potential in terms of the effective reproduction number in future years signal an increased risk of new mumps outbreaks. Literature reviews on serological information for both primary vaccine failure and waning immunity provide essential information for our predictions. Tailor-made additional vaccination campaigns would be valuable for decreasing local pockets of susceptibility, thereby reducing the risk of future large-scale mumps outbreaks.

journal_name

Am J Epidemiol

authors

Abrams S,Beutels P,Hens N

doi

10.1093/aje/kwu014

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2014-04-15 00:00:00

pages

1006-17

issue

8

eissn

0002-9262

issn

1476-6256

pii

kwu014

journal_volume

179

pub_type

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