Abstract:
OBJECTIVE:UNAIDS and country analysts use a simple infectious disease model, embedded in the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP), to generate annual updates on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Our objective was to develop modifications to the current model that improve fit to recently observed prevalence trends across countries. METHODS:Our proposed alternative to the current EPP approach simplifies the model structure and explicitly models changes in average infection risk over time, operationalised using penalised B-splines in a Bayesian framework. We also present an alternative approach to initiating the epidemic that improves standardisation and efficiency, and add an informative prior distribution for changes in infection risk beyond the last data point that enhances the plausibility of short-term extrapolations. RESULTS:The spline-based model produces better fits than the current model to observed prevalence trends in settings that have recently experienced levelling or rising prevalence following a steep decline, such as Uganda and urban Rwanda. The model also predicts a deceleration of the decline in prevalence for countries with recent experience of steady declines, such as Kenya and Zimbabwe. Estimates and projections from our alternative model are comparable to those from the current model where the latter performs well. CONCLUSIONS:A more flexible epidemiological model that accommodates changing infection risk over time can provide better estimates and short-term projections of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality than the current EPP model. The alternative model specification can be incorporated easily into existing analytical tools that are used to produce updates on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic.
journal_name
Sex Transm Infectjournal_title
Sexually transmitted infectionsauthors
Hogan DR,Zaslavsky AM,Hammitt JK,Salomon JAdoi
10.1136/sti.2010.045104subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2010-12-01 00:00:00pages
ii84-92eissn
1368-4973issn
1472-3263pii
86/Suppl_2/ii84journal_volume
86 Suppl 2pub_type
杂志文章abstract:OBJECTIVES:To investigate the distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes and determine the associations between HPV infection and HIV coinfection in sexually active heterosexual men with anogenital warts (GW), male urethral discharge or asymptomatic men. METHODS:Valid specimens for HPV genotyping were obtain...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sti.2009.037598
更新日期:2010-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To describe sexual risk behaviour, correlates of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) and never testing for HIV and its implications for HIV prevention interventions among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Nigeria and other similar contexts. METHODS:A cross-sectional survey was administered to 712 MSM in Abu...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2013-051065
更新日期:2013-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:While genitourinary medicine (GUM) records have historically been kept separate from other medical data, patient information is increasingly shared across the NHS. There are advantages to this in GUM: GPs are increasingly involved in delivering targets for STI screening and sexual health services. We ascerta...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2007.026922
更新日期:2008-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Recently marketed nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT) for the detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) have improved specificity over previous generation assays. A study to assess the necessity for confirmation of Roche cobas 4800 NG positive samples was undertaken by the Public Health Wales Microbiology ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2013-051410
更新日期:2014-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Using the example of South Africa, this study aimed to examine and obtain a better understanding of the experiences and challenges of urban and rural patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in accessing this complex treatment in a resource-limited setting. METHODS:Following a narrative approach, in-depth i...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2011-050140
更新日期:2012-03-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To systematically review the evidence of the relation between smoking tobacco and HIV seroconversion and progression to AIDS. METHODS:A systematic review was undertaken of studies to look at tobacco smoking as a risk factor for either HIV seroconversion or progression to AIDS. RESULTS:Six studies were iden...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1136/sti.2005.019505
更新日期:2007-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::The health economic concepts of dominance were reviewed on the basis of two recently published cost-effectiveness analyses on screening for asymptomatic Chlamydia trachomatis, one in this journal. On the basis of dominance, some strategies may be deleted from the set options from which to choose. The two investigated ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2007.028043
更新日期:2008-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To determine the prevalence and risk factors for human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in female sex workers (FSW) in Lima, Peru. METHODS:Cross-sectional study of 87 FSW. Information regarding demographics, sex work practices, and genital and blood specimens was collected. RESULTS:Forty-four (50.6%) of 87 F...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2010.043315
更新日期:2011-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The Sydney Sexual Health Centre in Australia uses a proforma tool to screen all new female clients for recent physical intimate partner violence (IPV). This study describes the prevalence and associations of recent physical IPV among women attending a sexual health clinic. METHOD:The clinic database was use...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2010.043109
更新日期:2011-03-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To assess attitudes to HIV risk and acceptability of rapid HIV testing among clients of street-based female sex workers (FSW) in Lausanne, Switzerland, where HIV prevalence in the general population is 0.4%. METHODS:The authors conducted a cross-sectional study in the red light district of Lausanne for five...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2012-050489
更新日期:2012-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Treatment of Neisseria gonorrhoeae is threatened by the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. We analysed data from the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (GRASP) in England and Wales to identify groups most at risk of reduced susceptibility to the currently recommended first-lin...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2016-052583
更新日期:2017-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To investigate the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STI) among female sex workers (FSW) in Kaiyuan city, Yunnan province, China, and to identify risk factors associated with STI. METHODS:A cross-sectional study of 737 FSW was carried out from March to May 2006, with confidential interviews a...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2008.033100
更新日期:2009-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Mathematical models serve a number of roles in understanding sexually transmitted infection epidemiology and control. This article seeks to provide the non-mathematician with a description of their construction and use and presents illustrative examples from sexually transmitted infection epidemiology. ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1136/sti.78.1.7
更新日期:2002-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Gonorrhoea is increasing among men who have sex with men (MSM). We aimed to determine whether Listerine, a commercial mouthwash product, has an inhibitory effect against Neisseria gonorrhoeae in a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and an in vitro study, and therefore may be a potentially useful agent for gon...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2016-052753
更新日期:2017-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::This review will delineate performance characteristics and limitations, as far as they are known, of the new glycoprotein G based, type specific HSV serologies. Several of these tests have been FDA approved in the United States for use in adults. With the departure of Gull/Meridian from the HSV serology market, it is ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1136/sti.77.4.232
更新日期:2001-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:While much research to date has examined female sex trade work, little has been done to evaluate factors associated with male sex trade involvement or to assess their health service needs. This is particularly true for male sex trade workers who are also injection drug users (IDUs). Therefore, the present an...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2004.011106
更新日期:2004-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Adults in developing countries frequently use community pharmacies as the first and often only source of care. The objective of this study was to assess the success of pharmacy referrals and uptake of HIV testing by young adult clients of community pharmacies in the context of a screening programme for acute...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2014-051751
更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Few studies have estimated Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) prevalence in the general population, most prevalence studies being based on people already attending healthcare settings. OBJECTIVES:To estimate the prevalence of CT in France, assess the feasibility of home sampling without any face-to-face interventio...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sti.2009.038752
更新日期:2010-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:The polymer conjugate enhanced enzyme immunoassay (IDEIA) and Cobas Amplicor polymerase chain reaction Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) (Amplicor PCR) are two commonly used assays for the diagnosis of CT infection. The performance of these assays was compared for the diagnosis of genital CT infection am...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2005.015362
更新日期:2006-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Reinfection after treatment for Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae reduces the effect of control interventions. We explored the impact of delays in treatment of current partners on the expected probability of reinfection of index cases using a mathematical model. METHODS:We used previously repor...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2013-051279
更新日期:2014-05-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The use of mobile technologies to prevent STIs is recognised as a promising approach worldwide; however, evidence has been inconclusive, and the field has developed rapidly. With about 1 million new STIs a day globally, up-to-date evidence is urgently needed. OBJECTIVE:To assess the effectiveness of mobile ...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2020-054853
更新日期:2021-01-15 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:'Chemsex' is a colloquial term used in the UK that describes sex under the influence of psychoactive substances (typically crystal methamphetamine, mephedrone and gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB)/gamma-butyrolactone (GBL)). Recently, concern has been raised as to the impact of such behaviour on HIV/sexually t...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2015-052052
更新日期:2015-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To examine sources of repeat Chlamydia trachomatis infections using behavioural and molecular methods. METHODS:Women with C. trachomatis had baseline and 4-month follow-up visits consisting of behavioural surveys and genotyping of C. trachomatis. Frequencies and population-attributable risk percentages (PAR%...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2010.045484
更新日期:2011-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:Trichomoniasis (TV) is associated with an increased risk of acquisition of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and HIV. The purpose of this study is to evaluate factors associated with incidence TV among female STD clinic attendees in the USA. METHODS:Data were collected from women participating in a rando...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2015-052010
更新日期:2016-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:The incidence of HIV and STIs increased among men who have sex with men (MSM) visiting our STI clinic in Amsterdam. Interestingly, HIV increased mainly among older (> or =35 years) MSM, whereas infection rates of rectal gonorrhoea increased mainly in younger men. To explore this discrepancy we compared trend...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sti.2003.007997
更新日期:2005-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of ciprofloxacin-resistant gonorrhoea in two South African cities and to investigate the association between the isolation of ciprofloxacin-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae and the HIV serostatus of patients. METHODS:Gonococci were cultured from endo...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sti.2007.029611
更新日期:2008-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To assess HIV prevalence and predictive factors for HIV among male sex workers in Spain. METHODS:In this study we analysed all male sex workers who visited HIV testing clinics in 19 Spanish cities between 2000 and 2002. The information was obtained during examination by means of a brief questionnaire. For re...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sti.2003.008649
更新日期:2005-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine the prevalence of rectal chlamydia infection in a cohort of men who have sex with men (MSM) and the proportion of infection that would be missed without routine screening. METHODS:MSM presenting to four HIV/GUM outpatient clinics at the Chelsea & Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust between...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sti.2008.031773
更新日期:2009-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To ascertain the prevalence of Trichomonas vaginalis and investigate associations between trichomoniasis, endometritis and sequelae among women with pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). METHODS:We assessed the prevalence of trichomoniasis identified via wet mount and its association with histologically confirm...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/sextrans-2019-054079
更新日期:2020-09-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To measure the bias in national estimates of HIV prevalence in population-based surveys caused by mobility and refusal to test. METHODS:Data from nine demographic and health surveys and AIDS indicator surveys were used. Non-responders were divided into three groups: (i) "refusals" who were interviewed but n...
journal_title:Sexually transmitted infections
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/sti.2008.030353
更新日期:2008-08-01 00:00:00