A performance evaluation of the expert system 'Jaundice' in comparison with that of three hepatologists.

Abstract:

:The diagnostic performance of an Expert System (Jaundice) designed to discriminate between different causes of jaundice was evaluated in a test sample of 200 consecutive in-patients with serum bilirubin greater than or equal to 51 mumol/l. The average probability assigned to true diagnosis, the non-error rate and the overall accuracy were, respectively, 55%, 77% and 70%. The Expert System's discriminatory ability in probabilistic prediction, assessed by a method based on continuous functions of the diagnostic probabilities (Brier score) was good. We also compared the ability of our Expert System to that of three experienced hepatologists, who were required to give a diagnosis in 20 cases following the same protocol used by computer (i.e., by asking only clinical and laboratory items). Both the hepatologists and Jaundice achieved a correct diagnosis in 70% of 20 cases, but the Expert System asked a significantly higher average number of questions during each consultation. Analysis of the reasoning pathway made by an external referee showed a high agreement between the diagnostic strategies of the Expert System and the physicians. We conclude that Jaundice can be a useful tool to support a physician with insufficient clinical experience in this field to generate correct diagnostic hypotheses.

journal_name

J Hepatol

journal_title

Journal of hepatology

authors

Cammà C,Garofalo G,Almasio P,Tinè F,Craxì A,Palazzo U,Pinzello G,Fiorello F,Angelo PM,Pagliaro L

doi

10.1016/0168-8278(91)90069-n

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1991-11-01 00:00:00

pages

279-85

issue

3

eissn

0168-8278

issn

1600-0641

pii

0168-8278(91)90069-N

journal_volume

13

pub_type

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