Abstract:
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represents an increasing healthcare concern as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Our objective was to predict the outcome of COPD patients associated with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) by scoring models. METHODS:A retrospective study was performed on severe COPD patients within 24 hours of the onset of MODS. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE III, Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores were calculated for patients. RESULTS:A total of 153 elderly patients were recruited. Compared to 30-day survivors, the number of failing organs and all of the scoring models were significantly higher in 30-day non-survivors. The SOFA showed the highest sensitivity and area under the curve (AUC) for predicting the prognosis of patients with MODS induced by acute exacerbation of COPD. The results of logistic regression indicated that factors that were correlated with the prognosis of COPD included the exacerbation history, SOFA score, number of failing organs, and duration of ICU stay. The value of exacerbation frequency for predicting the outcome of COPD was excellent (AUC: 0.892), with a sensitivity of 0.851 and a specificity of 0.797. CONCLUSIONS:The SOFA score, determined at the onset of MODS in elderly patients with COPD, was a reliable predictor of the prognosis. The exacerbation frequency, number of failing organs, and the SOFA score were risk factors of a poor prognosis, and the exacerbation frequency could also effectively predict the outcome of COPD.
journal_name
J Thorac Disjournal_title
Journal of thoracic diseaseauthors
Xiao K,Guo C,Su L,Yan P,Li X,Xie Ldoi
10.3978/j.issn.2072-1439.2014.11.27subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2015-03-01 00:00:00pages
329-36issue
3eissn
2072-1439issn
2077-6624pii
jtd-07-03-329journal_volume
7pub_type
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