Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997-2003.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics. METHODS:The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed. RESULTS:The best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range +/- 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month. CONCLUSION:This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area.

journal_name

Malar J

journal_title

Malaria journal

authors

Gomez-Elipe A,Otero A,van Herp M,Aguirre-Jaime A

doi

10.1186/1475-2875-6-129

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2007-09-24 00:00:00

pages

129

issn

1475-2875

pii

1475-2875-6-129

journal_volume

6

pub_type

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