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Ecological niche modeling to estimate the distribution of Japanese encephalitis virus in Asia.

Abstract：

BACKGROUND:Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a leading cause of encephalitis in Asia. JEV is transmitted in an enzootic cycle involving large wading birds as the reservoirs and swine as amplifying hosts. The development of a JEV vaccine reduced the number of JE cases in regions with comprehensive childhood vaccination programs, such as in Japan and the Republic of Korea. However, the lack of vaccine programs or insufficient coverage of populations in other endemic countries leaves many people susceptible to JEV. The aim of this study was to predict the distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus using ecological niche modeling. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:An ecological niche model was constructed using the Maxent program to map the areas with suitable environmental conditions for the Cx. tritaeniorhynchus vector. Program input consisted of environmental data (temperature, elevation, rainfall) and known locations of vector presence resulting from an extensive literature search and records from MosquitoMap. The statistically significant Maxent model of the estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence showed that the mean temperatures of the wettest quarter had the greatest impact on the model. Further, the majority of human Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases were located in regions with higher estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Our ecological niche model of the estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence provides a framework for better allocation of vector control resources, particularly in locations where JEV vaccinations are unavailable. Furthermore, this model provides estimates of vector probability that could improve vector surveillance programs and JE control efforts.

journal_name

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

journal_title

PLoS neglected tropical diseases

authors

Miller RH,Masuoka P,Klein TA,Kim HC,Somer T,Grieco J

doi

10.1371/journal.pntd.0001678

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2012-01-01 00:00:00

pages

e1678

issue

eissn

1935-2727

issn

1935-2735

pii

PNTD-D-12-00076

journal_volume

pub_type

杂志文章

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Ecological niche modeling to estimate the distribution of Japanese encephalitis virus in Asia.