Abstract:
:COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.
journal_name
Virusesjournal_title
Virusesauthors
Röst G,Bartha FA,Bogya N,Boldog P,Dénes A,Ferenci T,Horváth KJ,Juhász A,Nagy C,Tekeli T,Vizi Z,Oroszi Bdoi
10.3390/v12070708subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-06-30 00:00:00issue
7issn
1999-4915pii
v12070708journal_volume
12pub_type
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