Rising trend in vitamin D status from 1993 to 2013: dual concerns for the future.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:The Institute of Medicine 2011 Report on Dietary Reference Intakes for Calcium and Vitamin D specified higher intakes for all age groups compared to the 1997 report, but also cautioned against spurious claims about an epidemic of vitamin D deficiency and against advocates of higher intake requirements. Over 40 years, we have noted marked improvement in vitamin D status but we are concerned about hypervitaminosis D. OBJECTIVE:We sought to evaluate the 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) trend over 20 years. DESIGN:We retrieved all results of serum 25OHD from 1993 to 2013 (n=69 012) that was trimmed to one sample per person (n=43 782). We conducted a time series analysis of the monthly averages for 25OHD using a simple sequence chart and a running median smoothing function. We modelled the data using univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and forecast 25OHD levels up to 2016. RESULTS:The time series sequence chart and smoother function demonstrated a steady upward trend with seasonality. The yearly average 25OHD increased from 36.1 nmol/l in 1993 to 57.3 nmol/l in 2013. The ARIMA model was a good fit for the 25OHD time series; it forecasted monthly average 25OHD up to the end of 2016 with a positive stationary R(2) of 0.377. CONCLUSIONS:Vitamin D status improved over the past 40 years, but there remains a dual problem: there are groups at risk of vitamin D deficiency who need public health preventative measures; on the other hand, random members of the population are taking unnecessarily high vitamin D intakes for unsubstantiated claims.

journal_name

Endocr Connect

journal_title

Endocrine connections

authors

McKenna MJ,Murray BF,O'Keane M,Kilbane MT

doi

10.1530/EC-15-0037

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2015-09-01 00:00:00

pages

163-71

issue

3

issn

2049-3614

pii

EC-15-0037

journal_volume

4

pub_type

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